Lodi’s Growth Plans Through a Commuter Lens
Evaluating the Downtown Specific Plan, Eastside Vision, South Study Area, and EDSP for their impact on out-commuters, in-commuters, and resident workers — and creative strategies to maximize the revenue each group generates.
The Core Insight: Lodi’s Out-Commuters Are Its Largest Economic Asset
Before evaluating any growth plan, it is essential to recognize a fundamental truth about Lodi’s economy: the city’s most powerful economic engine is not its agricultural sector, its downtown, or its industrial corridor — it is the 17,662 Lodi residents who drive out of town every morning carrying outside wages and bring them home every evening.
The Strategic Implication for Every Growth Decision
Out-commuters generate 7–9× more annual economic benefit per person than in-commuters. Any growth plan, zoning decision, or city investment should be evaluated against this question: Does this make Lodi more attractive to high-wage out-commuters? Does it capture more of their outside earnings? Does it convert any of them into live-and-work residents? If not, the economic return is significantly lower than alternatives.
This does not mean Lodi should ignore in-commuters or job attraction. It means the hierarchy of economic priority should be: (1) retain and serve out-commuters, (2) convert out-commuters to live-and-work, (3) attract high-wage jobs to reduce commuting need, (4) support in-commuter daytime economy. Current plans largely invert this order.
Evaluating Lodi’s Current Growth Plans
Lodi has four major active planning frameworks, each with different implications for its three workforce populations. The evaluation below rates each plan’s likely impact on each group based on published objectives, land use designations, and comparable city outcomes.
Draft released Feb 2026; Council review Apr 2026
Restaurants, entertainment, walkable retail directly serve evening/weekend out-commuter spending. Hotel attracts out-of-town visitors whose spending competes with commuter-destination alternatives.
Mixed-use housing adds daytime foot traffic near downtown jobs. New retail captures some in-commuter lunch spending.
Downtown housing units directly add live-and-work residents. A walkable, activated downtown is the #1 cited reason knowledge workers choose to stop commuting and work locally.
850-acre business park, Hwy 99 east; light mfg & tech
Jobs that match out-commuter skill profiles (management, tech, healthcare) would convert some to live-and-work. But logistics/warehouse jobs — the most likely tenants — do not match the $87K–$114K wage profiles Lodi out-commuters are leaving for.
Business park creates new jobs drawing commuters from Stockton, Galt, and Sacramento. Largest potential expansion of in-commuter base.
Only if employers offer $60K+ wages. Logistics jobs at $50K won’t pull Bay Area commuters home. Professional services, healthcare, or back-office operations could.
3,000 housing units, 800 acres, south of Harney Lane
Adds high-quality housing inventory at varied price points, making Lodi competitive as a destination for Bay Area and Sacramento workers seeking affordable homeownership. Smart-growth design and school quality are primary draws.
New residents don’t significantly increase Lodi’s in-commuter count without co-located employment.
Some new residents will seek local employment, but without local job quality improvement, most will join the out-commuter ranks. Net effect: grows the out-commuter base, which is positive for revenues.
350 housing units, Kettleman & Sacramento Rd; annexation underway
Modest addition to housing stock. Proximity to major thoroughfares convenient for commuters. Mixed housing types important for workforce diversity.
Residential-focused; minimal in-commuter impact.
Adds housing near existing employment nodes but no new job creation. Primarily expands resident base.
Being finalized by Natelson Dale Group, March 2026
EDSP target to raise median income to California top 25% directly requires either converting out-commuter earners to local workers OR adding equivalent high-wage jobs. This is the right goal; execution matters.
Business development, Hometown Microloan, and business recruitment programs all increase local employment options.
If EDSP successfully recruits professional services, healthcare, or tech employers to Eastside/downtown, this directly increases live-and-work population — the highest-multiplier outcome.
What the Plans Are Missing
None of Lodi’s current planning documents explicitly recognize out-commuters as the city’s primary economic asset or propose strategies targeting them specifically. The plans focus on job attraction (converting out-commuters to live-and-work) and downtown activation (capturing spending), but miss several high-leverage opportunities discussed in the sections below.
Maximizing the Out-Commuter Dividend
Lodi’s 17,662 out-commuters are not a problem to be solved — they are the city’s largest revenue engine. 3,976 commute to the Bay Area earning $87K–$114K/year. 2,193 commute to Sacramento earning $76K/year. The strategic challenge is capturing more of those earnings within Lodi city limits rather than watching them leak to Stockton, Sacramento online retailers, or Bay Area destinations on commute days.
Plan Adjustments to Prioritize Out-Commuters
Out-commuters arrive home 5–7pm and have purchasing power but limited local options. The Downtown Specific Plan’s restaurant and entertainment focus directly addresses this, but it needs to be explicitly framed as a commuter retention strategy, not just an aesthetic improvement. Current plans emphasize daytime foot traffic — the high-value window is 6–10pm weeknights and weekend mornings.
- Prioritize food & beverage permits over retail for downtown ground floor
- Commission a study of where Lodi residents currently spend evenings and weekends (Stockton? Elk Grove?)
- Target entertainment programming for Thursday–Sunday to capture returning commuters
Out-commuters choose Lodi for housing affordability. The question is whether they “stay” in Lodi or move on when they can afford better. Housing quality, school quality, and quality-of-life amenities determine whether a Bay Area worker chooses Lodi over Tracy, Elk Grove, or Folsom.
- South Study Area design standards should explicitly target move-up housing (3–4 bed, 1,800–2,400 sq ft) that retains families
- School quality data should be incorporated into economic development marketing materials
- Parks, trails, and recreational facilities are non-trivial factors in retaining high-earning families
Post-pandemic, roughly 20–30% of Lodi’s out-commuters likely work hybrid schedules (2–3 days/week in the office). On their remote days, they are fully available to spend locally. Co-working spaces, high-speed fiber, and business-friendly coffee shops directly monetize this population segment.
- Downtown Specific Plan should include co-working space as an explicitly supported use
- Lodi Electric’s fiber infrastructure investment is a direct competitive advantage — market it
- Consider a “Lodi Works Wednesdays” campaign for remote workers to patronize local businesses
Out-commuters pass through Lodi’s commercial corridors twice daily. Businesses positioned along commute routes (SR-99, Kettleman Lane, Turner Road) that offer quality morning coffee, grab-and-go breakfast, dry cleaning, and car services are directly competing for spending that otherwise goes to destination cities.
- Zoning near major commute corridors should support convenience-oriented commercial uses
- A “commuter-friendly business” designation (early hours, app ordering, drive-through) could be a Chamber program
- Kettleman Lane commercial strip is underperforming its commuter-capture potential
Maximizing the In-Commuter Daytime Economy
Lodi’s 16,924 in-commuters — 26% from Stockton, 4% from Galt, and smaller contingents from Sacramento, Elk Grove, and Modesto — represent an underexploited daytime economic resource. Currently they eat lunch, buy gas, and largely return home without engaging deeply with Lodi’s retail or entertainment economy. The gap is primarily about destination quality and convenience during a compressed 30–60 minute mid-day window.
In-commuters working in Lodi’s hospital, school district, logistics centers, and agricultural processing facilities have predictable lunch patterns. A quality food corridor within 5 minutes of major employment nodes captures spending that currently goes to Stockton or fast food chains. The Downtown Specific Plan’s Sacramento Street pedestrian zone concept would serve this function for downtown workers, but equivalent investment is needed near the hospital and industrial employment clusters.
The quality of in-commuters matters as much as the quantity. Agricultural processing workers earning $40K/year generate modest daytime spending. Healthcare professionals earning $70K–$100K/year generate substantially more. Lodi Memorial Hospital’s expansion and healthcare job growth is among the most economically efficient in-commuter strategies available — these workers eat out, use services, and eventually many become residents. The Eastside Vision should explicitly prioritize healthcare and professional services over warehousing.
Survey Opportunity: What Do In-Commuters Actually Want?
Neither the EDSP nor the Downtown Specific Plan references any survey of in-commuter preferences or spending patterns. A 500-person survey of workers at Lodi’s top 10 employers asking “What would make you more likely to spend more time and money in Lodi?” and “What would make you consider living in Lodi?” would provide actionable data at minimal cost. The Chamber of Commerce is well-positioned to conduct this.
Growing the Live-and-Work Population
Converting out-commuters or in-commuters to live-and-work residents is the highest-ROI economic development move available to Lodi. Each such conversion adds an estimated $28K–$41K/year in total economic benefit to the city (vs. $2.7K–$3.9K for an in-commuter). Two pathways exist: bring jobs to Lodi that match existing residents’ skills, and attract workers from elsewhere who want Lodi’s housing affordability with proximity to regional employment that accepts hybrid schedules.
Priority Job Sectors to Target
Lodi’s out-commuting workforce is concentrated in management, healthcare, professional services, and tech-adjacent roles. These are the sectors where recruitment converts out-commuters to live-and-work workers:
- Healthcare & Medical: Expansion of Lodi Memorial Hospital and specialty clinics captures the largest number of existing resident out-commuters. Healthcare workers are among the most likely to relocate when local options become available.
- Professional Services / Back-Office: Accounting firms, insurance, financial services, and legal support can operate from Lodi with Sacramento or Bay Area clients. These roles exist in abundance among Lodi’s out-commuter population.
- Education Administration & Lodi Unified: LUSD is already a major local employer. Expansion of continuing education, adult learning, and potential community college presence creates skilled live-and-work jobs.
- Tech-Enabled Small Business: The EDSP’s focus on tech job attraction is appropriate but should recognize that remote-first tech workers may not require a large employer — they need reliable fiber, co-working space, and quality of life. Lodi Electric’s network is a competitive asset.
Downtown Housing Is the Fastest Path
The Downtown Specific Plan’s emphasis on housing-above-retail mixed use directly creates live-and-work residents for downtown businesses. A worker who lives at 2nd & School and works at a School Street coffee shop or boutique is the highest-value economic unit in Lodi’s ecosystem — their rent, meals, utilities, and retail spending all stay within a few blocks. The plan should maximize residential density in the core while maintaining ground-floor commercial activation requirements.
Fuel Prices, Commute Cost Risk, and Mitigation Strategies
California has among the highest fuel costs in the nation, and Lodi’s economy is unusually exposed to fuel price volatility. Both out-commuters (who drive long distances for work) and in-commuters (who drive to Lodi from Stockton, Galt, and beyond) face direct operating cost pressure when gas prices spike. When fuel becomes expensive, out-commuters lose purchasing power, in-commuters may seek closer employment, and both groups evaluate whether their commuting arrangement still makes financial sense.
At $4.50/gallon and 25 MPG, a 70-mile round trip costs roughly $12/day or $252/month just for fuel — before vehicle wear. For Sacramento commuters (35 miles each way), the monthly fuel cost is closer to $140. These are significant household budget items that affect disposable income available for local spending.
San Joaquin County has one of California’s highest super-commuter rates (20.7% of county workers commuting over an hour). Fuel spikes hit this population hardest and create pressure to relocate closer to work — which would remove high-earning households from Lodi’s tax base.
Creative Strategies to Support Commuters and Attract Others
Partner with one or two Lodi gas stations to offer a loyalty card program giving frequent fuelers (daily commuters) a 3–5 cents/gallon discount funded by participating stations in exchange for marketing support and city-facilitated visibility. Negotiated in bulk, this costs stations little in margin while building out-commuter loyalty to local fuel stations over Stockton or highway stops.
Lodi Electric is already investing in grid capacity. Adding a network of Level 2 EV chargers at downtown parking structures and major commute-route commercial centers provides a concrete amenity that attracts EV-owning out-commuters (disproportionately higher-income) to shop and dine while charging. Several California cities have used utility-subsidized EV charging as an economic development tool.
San Joaquin RTD already operates Route 93 connecting Lodi’s Transit Station to Stockton, and the BART Commuter service runs from Stockton. A coordinated marketing campaign with RTD to promote these routes to Lodi employers — positioning bus commuting as a fuel-cost solution for workers from Stockton — could meaningfully shift mode share and reduce turnover among in-commuters priced out of driving.
The Altamont Corridor Express is scheduled to add a Lodi station in 2027 on the Valley Rail northern branch, connecting directly to Elk Grove, Sacramento, and via the existing route to Fremont and San Jose. This is transformational. A Bay Area worker who commutes by car today could transition to train + local transit/bike. Lodi’s planning for the station area should begin now.
IRS Section 132(f) allows employers to provide up to $325/month tax-free for transit/vanpool. Bay Area and Sacramento employers routinely offer these benefits; many Lodi out-commuters may not know they are entitled to claim them. A Chamber-led awareness campaign — “Is your employer paying for your commute?” — is a zero-cost win for residents. Lodi can also negotiate with major Bay Area employers that have many Lodi employees to establish vanpool programs.
San Joaquin RTD operates Park-N-Ride facilities in Stockton for Sacramento and Bay Area commuters. Lodi lacks a formal Park-and-Ride facility, forcing commuters to improvise. A designated free Park-and-Ride lot near the SR-99 interchange (or the future ACE station) with organized vanpool coordination reduces fuel cost for participants by 60–80% and becomes a marketing asset for attracting workers who want to live in Lodi without enduring solo driving costs.
Several small cities have successfully attracted remote workers with modest relocation grants ($5K–$10K) for verified remote workers who relocate. Tulsa Remote (Oklahoma) attracted 10,000+ applications for 250 spots at $10K/person. Lodi’s combination of affordable housing, Lodi Electric fiber, and wine country lifestyle is a genuine draw. A $3K–$5K relocation benefit funded by property tax revenue from added housing units would pay for itself within 18 months per household.
Lodi411 already tracks fuel prices. An expanded feature showing real-time best gas prices in Lodi vs. Stockton highway corridors, combined with commuter cost calculators (driving vs. vanpool vs. ACE rail) and EV charging station availability, directly serves both out-commuters and in-commuters. This kind of practical civic utility builds daily active users and reinforces Lodi’s value proposition as a commuter-friendly city.
The ACE Rail Opportunity: Lodi’s Biggest Untapped Asset
Why ACE Changes Everything for Commuters
Currently, Lodi’s 3,976 Bay Area out-commuters drive solo over the Altamont Pass in some of California’s worst traffic, spending $400–$800/month on fuel and 2–3+ hours/day commuting. ACE rail eliminates the fuel cost, removes the stress, and allows productive work time on the train. Research on ACE’s existing Stockton–San Jose ridership consistently shows that once workers switch to ACE, their quality of life improves enough that they actively recruit friends and colleagues to also live in the Central Valley. ACE riders become Lodi’s most effective word-of-mouth marketing for Bay Area worker relocation.
The ACE station’s location determines the economic impact radius. The Downtown Specific Plan should explicitly address the ACE station as a connectivity asset. Transit-oriented development (TOD) within a half-mile of the station — housing, co-working, food, retail — is the highest-return land use in Lodi’s development pipeline. Modesto is already designing its Transit Center for ACE integration; Lodi should be doing the same.
- Identify the station parcel in current planning documents
- Initiate TOD zoning overlay within 0.5-mile radius
- Coordinate with SJRRC on station design and parking capacity
ACE station value depends entirely on getting from the station to your Lodi home or your Bay Area office. Lodi needs a “first/last mile” plan now: bike infrastructure to the station, an RTD connection between the station and residential areas, and ride-share facilities. Cities that fail to plan first/last mile see low ridership even with good rail service.
- Bike lanes or protected paths from station to downtown and major residential areas
- RTD shuttle route from station to Lodi residential neighborhoods
- Ride-share drop-off zone and covered bike storage at station
Critical: The ACE Station Is Not in Current Planning Documents
The Downtown Specific Plan draft released February 2026, the EDSP framework, and the Eastside Vision growth plan make no specific mention of the planned 2027 ACE Lodi station or its implications for transit-oriented development, housing demand, or commuter attraction strategies. This is a significant planning gap. The 2027 timeline is close enough that zoning, infrastructure, and TOD entitlement decisions need to begin in 2026 to be ready for station opening.
Model Programs from Similar Commuter Cities
Several California and national cities with similar commuter profiles — affordable housing, long-distance Bay Area or metro commuters, agriculture-based economies in transition — have developed programs worth adapting for Lodi.
Tracy, facing the same Bay Area bedroom community dynamic (over 80% of its workforce once commuted to the Bay Area), has explicitly linked housing development approvals to job attraction targets, requiring developers to contribute to a workforce development fund. Its General Plan update explicitly states the goal of “reducing Bay Area commutes” as an economic development measure, not just a quality-of-life aspiration. Lodi’s EDSP could adopt similar linking language.
Lathrop has built its entire growth strategy around the coming Valley Link rail connection to BART at Dublin/Pleasanton. River Islands development centers its 500 homes/year pipeline on the station area, arguing that rail access justifies premium pricing and attracts higher-income residents. The developer proactively funds transit infrastructure. Lodi’s ACE station presents the same opportunity if planning begins now.
San Francisco requires employers with 50+ employees to offer commuter benefits (pre-tax transit, employer subsidy, or company shuttle). The Bay Area MTC extends this to all Bay Area employers with 50+ staff. Many Lodi out-commuters work for employers subject to this ordinance but may not be claiming the up to $325/month in tax-free transit or vanpool benefits. A Chamber-led awareness campaign is a direct household income improvement at zero city cost.
Tulsa Remote offered $10,000 to verified remote workers who relocated to Tulsa for one year. The program attracted 10,000+ applicants for 250 spots and generated national media coverage worth multiples of its cost. Each participant contributed roughly $30K+ to the local economy annually. A smaller Lodi version at $3K–$5K targeting Bay Area or Sacramento remote workers, marketed around Lodi’s wine country lifestyle and housing affordability, could be piloted with Chamber and city co-funding.
Modesto is already designing its Transit Center for ACE integration well before the 2026 station opening. The city invested $5.23 million in its Modesto Transit Center specifically to be ready for ACE, designing two platforms for future ridership growth, and is partnering with developers on TOD adjacent to the station. Lodi should adopt the same proactive approach for its 2027 station.
San Joaquin RTD already operates subscription commuter coach service from Stockton to Sacramento and the Bay Area (Dublin/Pleasanton BART), with free Park-N-Ride facilities. This service is dramatically underutilized by Lodi residents because the Lodi-to-Stockton connection requires a transfer. Partnering with RTD to create a direct Lodi pickup on the Sacramento or BART commuter route — even one morning and evening trip — would serve Bay Area out-commuters immediately.
Cities like Livermore and Dublin have partnered with major employers (Amazon, Tesla, hospitals) to establish employer-organized vanpools for workers commuting from the Central Valley. Lodi could reverse-engineer this: approach large Lodi employers (Lodi Memorial, Lodi Unified, major ag processors) to establish vanpools from Stockton, coordinated with RTD’s existing infrastructure. Rideshare.org provides free coordination tools with IRS 132(f) benefit administration.
Cities including Elk Grove, Folsom, and smaller Central Valley communities have funded or subsidized co-working spaces as a direct workforce retention tool. A subsidized co-working space in downtown Lodi with reliable gigabit fiber (Lodi Electric advantage), meeting rooms, and coffee serves three economic functions simultaneously: retains remote workers on non-commute days, attracts new remote-worker residents, and activates downtown during business hours when commuters are absent.
Priority Actions: A Commuter-First Planning Agenda
The following recommendations are organized by timeline and target population, with recognition that out-commuter strategies generate the highest fiscal return per dollar of city and Chamber investment.
Immediate (0–90 Days) — No Budget Required
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01
Incorporate ACE Station Planning into the Downtown Specific Plan Before April 15 Council Vote
The draft DSP currently makes no mention of the 2027 ACE Lodi station. Before Council adoption, insert a transit-oriented development policy zone around the station site and direct staff to initiate TOD planning in partnership with SJRRC. This costs nothing and prevents locking in incompatible zoning.
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02
Commission an Out-Commuter Spending Survey Through the Chamber
A simple 10-question online survey to 500 Lodi out-commuters asking where they currently spend money on commute days and what would bring more spending to Lodi would inform every downstream planning decision. Cost: $2K–$5K with a student research partner or Survey Monkey. The data is currently absent from all planning documents.
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03
Launch a Commuter Benefits Awareness Campaign
Partner the Chamber with CalHR and the Bay Area MTC to educate Lodi residents about IRS Section 132(f) pre-tax commuter benefits (up to $325/month for transit/vanpool). Many residents working for Bay Area or Sacramento employers are eligible but not enrolled. This is a direct household income improvement with zero city cost.
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04
Add ACE Rail Commuter Cost Calculator to Lodi411
Build a simple tool showing the cost comparison of driving to the Bay Area vs. ACE rail (once operational), including fuel, wear, parking, and time. This begins educating the commuter community about the 2027 transition opportunity and reinforces Lodi411’s value as a civic resource. Pair with real-time Lodi vs. highway fuel price comparison.
Near-Term (3–12 Months) — Modest Investment
| Action | Target Group | Est. Cost | Priority | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commission ACE Station Area TOD Master Plan Hire a consultant to plan the 0.5-mile station area for transit-oriented mixed use, housing, and first/last mile infrastructure |
Out-Comm | $80K–$150K | Critical | City + SJRRC |
| Negotiate RTD Direct Lodi Express to Sacramento Work with RTD and SJCOG to add Lodi as a direct stop on the Commuter Coach to Sacramento, using existing Park-N-Ride infrastructure |
Out-Comm | Subsidy TBD | High | City + SJCOG |
| EV Charging at Downtown Parking Structures Leverage Lodi Electric and CPUC incentives to install Level 2 chargers at City-owned parking, converting commuter infrastructure into a local spending catalyst |
Out-Comm | $40K–$80K (net of incentives) | High | Lodi Electric |
| Designate and Improve a Park-and-Ride Lot Formalize a free Park-N-Ride near SR-99 or the future ACE station to support vanpool formation and RTD commuter bus connections |
Both | $50K–$100K | Medium | City Public Works |
| Pilot “Lodi Welcomes Remote Workers” Relocation Program 30-person pilot offering $3K–$5K relocation grants to verified remote workers relocating from Bay Area or Sacramento; marketed via Lodi411 and social media |
Live+Work | $90K–$150K | High | Chamber + EDSP |
| Employer Vanpool Convening for Major Lodi Employers Facilitate vanpool formation for in-commuters from Stockton, using Rideshare.org tools and IRS 132(f) employer benefit structures |
In-Comm | $5K (facilitation) | Medium | Chamber |
| In-Commuter Survey at Top 10 Lodi Employers Survey workers at Lodi Memorial, LUSD, and major ag processors about spending preferences, residential interest, and commute cost pain points |
In-Comm | $3K–$8K | High | Chamber + EDSP |
Longer-Term (1–5 Years) — Capital Investment
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ACE Station First/Last Mile Infrastructure
Before the 2027 station opens, complete protected bike lanes or a shared-use path from the station to downtown, install covered secure bike parking at the station, and establish an RTD shuttle route serving residential neighborhoods. Capital cost: $2M–$5M, largely SJCOG and Caltrans grant-eligible.
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Downtown Co-Working Anchor
Use the EDSP Microloan program or a city-facilitated RFP to bring a quality co-working operator to downtown Lodi, targeting 5,000–10,000 sq ft with gigabit fiber, meeting rooms, and a café. Position this explicitly as a remote-worker retention tool and ACE commuter amenity.
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Eastside Vision Wage Floor Policy
Incorporate a voluntary or incentivized wage floor into Eastside Business Park attraction efforts. Employers offering average wages above $60K/year receive expedited permitting, reduced impact fees, or other incentives. This prevents the business park from becoming a low-wage logistics corridor that does not improve Lodi’s median household income trajectory.
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Annual Commuter Economy Dashboard (Lodi411)
Publish annual data on the four workforce populations, commuter fuel costs, ACE ridership, Park-N-Ride utilization, and local spending capture rates. This baseline makes it possible to measure whether the strategies above are working and gives Council and Chamber evidence to allocate resources effectively.
This analysis was prepared based on 2023 Census LODES workforce data, San Joaquin RTD and SJRRC service information, Lodi City planning documents including the February 2026 Downtown Specific Plan draft and City Council Strategic Vision updates, Valley Rail/ACE expansion planning timelines, and economic development programs from comparable commuter cities. Data on ACE Lodi station timing reflects the most current published planning timeline (2027); actual opening subject to SJRRC/UP Railroad coordination.