Impact of Tariffs on San Joaquin Valley Farmers

Farming

Apr 20

Overview

Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government—particularly under President Donald Trump—have had significant and largely negative impacts on San Joaquin Valley farmers, especially those growing almonds and other export-oriented crops. The region, a global agricultural powerhouse, relies heavily on international markets for selling produce and sourcing essential farm inputs.

Key Effects on San Joaquin Valley Farmers

Loss of Export Markets and Revenue

China, Canada, and the European Union are among the largest markets for San Joaquin Valley crops such as almonds, pistachios, and dairy products. When the U.S. imposed tariffs, these countries retaliated with steep levies on American agricultural exports. For example, China raised tariffs on U.S. tree nuts to 35%, severely reducing demand for California almonds[3][6].
A 2022 study estimated that tariffs cost the California almond industry $875 million between 2018 and 2022[3]. Almond exports dropped by a quarter during the last round of tariffs in 2018, and the loss of the Chinese market to competitors like Australia was particularly damaging[2].
Persistent low prices and lost sales have pushed some growers out of business, with orchards being put up for sale throughout the Central Valley[2].

Increased Costs for Inputs

Farmers in the San Joaquin Valley also rely on imports for equipment, fertilizer, and other supplies. Tariffs on these goods, especially from Canada, have driven up production costs, squeezing already tight profit margins[1].
The uncertainty around supply chains and rising input prices makes it harder for farmers to plan and invest, compounding the risks from weather and water shortages[1].

Market Instability and Uncertainty

The threat of ongoing or escalating trade wars has created deep anxiety among farmers. Many are concerned about losing additional markets and facing even more unpredictable price swings[2].
The instability discourages investment in agriculture, as both climate and trade policy uncertainties make the future of farming in the region less secure[5].

Limited Relief and Policy Response

While the federal government provided subsidies to some farmers affected by tariffs during Trump’s first term, many California farmers—who grow specialty crops rather than bulk commodities like soybeans—did not qualify for meaningful compensation[2].
State and industry leaders have called for reducing trade barriers and restoring stable market access, but relief measures have been slow or insufficient[2].

Summary Table: Tariff Impacts on San Joaquin Valley Agriculture

Conclusion

Tariffs have imposed direct financial losses, increased costs, and deepened uncertainty for San Joaquin Valley farmers. The region’s heavy dependence on exports and imported inputs makes it especially vulnerable to trade disruptions. Without swift resolution or robust mitigation, tariffs threaten the long-term viability of one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions[3][6].

Crops Most Impacted by Tariffs in the San Joaquin Valley

Almonds

Almonds are the most significantly impacted crop by tariffs in the San Joaquin Valley. California produces about 76–80% of the world’s almonds, with the San Joaquin Valley as a major production hub. Roughly half of all almonds are exported, making the industry highly vulnerable to trade disruptions. Tariffs—especially those imposed by China, which raised rates on U.S. tree nuts to 35%—have caused almond exports to drop by a quarter and led to an estimated $875–$900 million loss for the industry between 2018 and 2022[12][17]. The loss of key markets like China has contributed to persistent low prices, orchard sales, and financial strain for growers.

Tree Nuts (Including Pistachios and Walnuts)

Beyond almonds, other tree nuts such as pistachios and walnuts are also heavily affected. China’s retaliatory tariffs have choked off purchases of these nuts, further hurting growers in the region[13]. The San Joaquin Valley is a leading producer of these crops, and their export orientation makes them particularly susceptible to international trade barriers.

Dairy Products

Dairy is another major commodity in the San Joaquin Valley. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and other countries have targeted U.S. dairy exports, reducing demand and prices for local producers. Dairy products accounted for a $68 million loss in crop revenue due to tariffs, with milk being the top agricultural product in San Joaquin County in recent years[12][15].

Processed and Fresh Fruits

Processed and fresh fruits—including grapes, cherries, and citrus—have also suffered from tariffs. These crops are significant export commodities for the region, and retaliatory tariffs from Canada, China, and Mexico have led to reduced sales and lower prices. For example, cherries, grapes, and citrus have all experienced value declines attributed to both tariffs and decreased demand[11][14].

Perishable Crops (Strawberries, Lettuce, Tomatoes)

Perishable crops such as strawberries, lettuce, and tomatoes face immediate risks from trade disruptions. Spoilage and financial losses can result quickly if export markets are blocked, and the domestic market cannot always absorb the surplus[15]. Tomatoes, in particular, are vulnerable due to their reliance on exports to Canada and Mexico.

Summary Table: Most Impacted Crops

In summary:

Almonds, other tree nuts, dairy, grapes, cherries, citrus, and perishable crops are the most impacted by tariffs in the San Joaquin Valley. The region’s heavy reliance on exports makes these commodities especially vulnerable to international trade disputes and retaliatory tariffs[12][14][16].