Lodi Eye
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Strongest El Niño in 140 Years
A rare triple-cyclone cluster near the equator in early April triggered what atmospheric scientists are calling possibly the most powerful westerly wind burst in the equatorial Pacific in a century. The April seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows near-universal model agreement that El Niño conditions will arrive by mid-to-late summer. A subset of models — about half of the ECMWF ensemble — projects sea-surface-temperature anomalies above 2.5°C by October.
For San Joaquin County and Lodi, the picture is further complicated by this year’s unusual water-year volatility, a record-breaking marine heatwave off the California coast, and a Sierra snowpack currently tied with 2015 for the lowest on record to date. History shows that a strong El Niño label does not guarantee a wet winter here — but when conditions align, the Mokelumne and San Joaquin river systems, the Delta levees, and Lodi’s vineyards absorb the consequences together.
Summer in March: The Heat Dome Rewriting the West's Future
An unprecedented ridge has shattered records across 23 states, decimated snowpack, and pushed the Colorado River system toward its most dangerous water year on record. Here’s what the science says, where the models are failing, and what it means for San Joaquin County and Lodi.
El Niño Returns: What a “Godzilla” Climate Event Could Mean for Northern California’s Water, Farms, and Fire Risk
Leading forecast models now put the odds of at least a moderate El Niño at roughly 98% by late summer, with an 80% chance it could reach “strong” status. Some models suggest this could rival the historic 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 events.
This special report examines what the emerging El Niño—combined with this winter’s record-warm conditions and troublingly low snowpack—could mean for our community across three critical areas: (1) flood risk and reservoir operations, (2) local agriculture and water supply, and (3) wildfire danger. Each section identifies specific risks, the areas most affected, and what Lodi residents should know.