Operation Absolute Resolve - January 3, 2026

International

Jan 3

Operation Absolute Resolve - Venezuela Situation Report

Executive Summary

In the early hours of January 3, 2026, the United States conducted a major military operation in Venezuela codenamed "Operation Absolute Resolve." The overnight mission resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores, who are now aboard the USS Iwo Jima en route to New York to face narco-terrorism charges.

The operation represents the most aggressive unilateral U.S. military action against a sovereign nation since the 1989 Panama invasion to capture Manuel Noriega. President Trump announced that the U.S. will "run" Venezuela until a "safe transition" can take place.

Key Facts at a Glance

Category	Details
Operation Name	Operation Absolute Resolve
Date/Time	January 3, 2026, approximately 0200 local time (0600 UTC)
Duration	Less than 3 hours (ingress 0601 UTC, egress 0820 UTC)
Primary Objective	Capture of President Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges
Assets Deployed	150+ aircraft from 20+ locations; Delta Force; 160th SOAR
Aircraft Types	F-22 Raptors, F-35s, F/A-18 Super Hornets, EA-18G Growlers, B-1B Lancers, MH-47G Chinooks
U.S. Casualties	Several wounded, no deaths reported; one helicopter hit but remained flyable
Venezuelan Casualties	Confirmed military and civilian deaths (exact number unknown)
Legal Basis Claimed	Article II executive authority; execution of DOJ arrest warrant
Maduro's Location	USS Iwo Jima, en route to Guantanamo Bay then New York

Strike Targets in Venezuela

U.S. forces struck multiple military and infrastructure targets in and around Caracas:

Fuerte Tiuna

Main Military Base

Caracas (Maduro's residence)

La Carlota

Primary Airbase

Caracas

El Volcán

Communications Antenna

Cerro El Volcán

La Guaira Port

Main Port Facility

Caribbean Coast

Higuerote Airport

Airport/Airbase

Miranda State

Timeline of Escalation

The January 3, 2026 operation was the culmination of months of escalating pressure by the Trump administration against Venezuela.

Date	Event
August 2025	U.S. begins major military buildup in southern Caribbean; USS Gerald R. Ford deployed
September 2025	U.S. forces begin striking suspected narco-boats; 115+ killed in 35 operations by January 2026
November 2025	U.S. designates Cartel of the Suns (allegedly led by Maduro) as Foreign Terrorist Organization
Dec 10-20	U.S. seizes oil tankers Skipper and Centuries off Venezuela's coast; naval blockade ordered
December 21	Iran-linked tanker Bella 1 flees U.S. Coast Guard interception; weeklong pursuit begins
December 23	UN Security Council emergency meeting on Venezuela; War Powers resolutions defeated in Congress
December 24	CIA drone strike on Venezuelan port facility (first U.S. land strike inside Venezuela)
December 25	Trump gives military green light for Maduro capture; forces in position
January 2, 2026	Maduro offers to hold talks with Trump administration on drug trafficking
January 3, 2026	Operation Absolute Resolve executed; Maduro captured at Fuerte Tiuna residence

Military Operation Details

Force Composition

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine confirmed the following assets were involved:

Over 150 aircraft operating from 20+ locations
F-22 Raptors and F-35 Lightning IIs for air superiority
F/A-18 Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers for strike and electronic warfare
B-1B Lancer strategic bombers (first confirmed use in this theater)
E-2 Hawkeyes for command and control
160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR) MH-47G Chinooks
Attack helicopters (possibly AH-64 Apache or MH-60 DAP)
U.S. Army Delta Force (capture team)
RQ-170 Sentinel stealth UAVs for ISR

Targets Struck

Target	Type	Location
Fuerte Tiuna	Main military base (Maduro's residence)	Caracas
La Carlota	Primary airbase	Caracas
El Volcán	Communications antenna	Cerro El Volcán
La Guaira Port	Main port facility	Caribbean Coast
Higuerote Airport	Airport/Airbase	Miranda State

Congressional Response

The operation has generated sharply divided reactions along party lines. The Trump administration notified Congressional leadership only after the operation began. The Armed Services committees were not notified in advance.

Republican Support

Official	Statement
Sen. John Thune (R-SD)	Called it a "necessary action" to "disrupt the unacceptable status quo"
Speaker Mike Johnson	Called operation "decisive and justified"; Maduro "responsible for deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans"
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL)	"This hemisphere's equivalent to the Fall of the Berlin Wall"
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)	Praised "incredibly complex mission with characteristic precision and professionalism"
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR)	Maduro "wasn't just an illegitimate dictator; he also ran a vast drug-trafficking operation"
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)	Initially skeptical, then accepted Article II justification after Rubio briefing

Democratic Opposition

Official	Statement
Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ)	"Rubio and Hegseth blatantly lied to Congress"; strike "sends horrible signal" about targeting heads of state
Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA)	"Unjustified, illegal strike on Venezuela" without Congressional authorization
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ)	Called it "the second unjustified war in my lifetime"; "illegal" and "embarrassing"
Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT)	Demanded immediate briefing on "legal justification" and "plan to ensure stability"
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)	Will force vote next week on resolution requiring Congressional authorization
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)	Actions "inconsistent" with what administration told Congress; brought "broader insecurity"

Notable Republican Dissent

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA): "This is what many in MAGA thought they voted to end. Boy were we wrong."

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY): Questioned constitutionality of the action

International Reactions

U.S. Adversaries

Country	Response
Russia	Called strikes "an act of armed aggression" that is "deeply concerning and condemnable"; backs emergency UN Security Council meeting; FM Lavrov expressed "firm solidarity" with Venezuela
China	"Deeply shocked and strongly condemns" use of force; "firmly opposes such hegemonic behaviour" that "seriously violates international law"; urges U.S. to "abide by UN Charter"
Iran	Called it "flagrant violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity"; Supreme Leader Khamenei urged resistance against "arrogant" U.S. imposition
Cuba	President Díaz-Canel called it a "criminal US attack"; demanded "URGENT reaction from international community"

Latin American Responses

Country	Response
Brazil	President Lula: Capture "crosses an unacceptable line"; "grave affront to Venezuela's sovereignty"; called for "vigorous" UN response
Colombia	President Petro: Called for UN Security Council meeting; deploying forces to border "in case of massive influx of refugees"; called strike "aggression against sovereignty"
Mexico	Condemned intervention as "clear violation" of international law; "Latin America and the Caribbean is a zone of peace"
Chile	President Boric expressed "concern and condemnation"; crisis must be resolved "through dialogue, not violence or foreign interference"
Argentina	President Milei (Trump ally) celebrated: "Freedom advances!"

European/Allied Responses

Entity	Response
European Union	Kaja Kallas: "Maduro lacks legitimacy" but "international law and UN Charter must be respected"; called for restraint
United Kingdom	PM Keir Starmer: "UK was not involved in any way"; stressed adherence to international law
France	FM Barrot: Strike "violates the principle of not resorting to force"; "no lasting political solution can be imposed from the outside"
Germany	CDU's Kiesewetter called it a "coup"; "Trump is destroying what was left of any trust in the U.S."
Spain	PM Sánchez called for de-escalation; offered "good offices" for peaceful solution
United Nations	Secretary-General Guterres "deeply alarmed"; developments "constitute a dangerous precedent"; "deeply concerned rules of international law have not been respected"

Legal Analysis

Administration's Legal Justification

Article II Authority: President's inherent constitutional authority to protect U.S. personnel executing an arrest warrant
DOJ Indictment: Maduro has faced narco-terrorism charges since 2020; new indictment issued January 3, 2026
FTO Designation: Cartel of the Suns designated as Foreign Terrorist Organization in November 2025
2001 AUMF: Broader authorization targeting terrorist organizations potentially invoked
Noriega Precedent: 1989 Panama invasion provides framework for arresting foreign leader on criminal charges

Legal Challenges and Criticisms

War Powers Resolution: Congress was not consulted; Armed Services committees not notified before operation
No Declaration of War: Article I, Section 8 reserves war powers to Congress
International Law: UN Charter prohibits use of force against territorial integrity of sovereign states
No Imminent Threat: Critics argue no physical attack on U.S. by Venezuelan actors
Failed War Powers Votes: Congress defeated resolutions to limit Venezuela action (213-211 and 216-210) in December 2025

Escalation Risks and Inflection Points

⚠️ Critical Assessment

Analyst Brian Fonseca, director of the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, warned: "The next 48 hours are probably the most crucial in this entire scenario. There is a pathway that could lead to pronounced civil conflict, and may force the Americans to double down even more."

Military Escalation Factors

Risk Factor	Description	Risk Level
Regime Loyalists	Military and militia forces loyal to Maduro remain intact; Defense Minister Padrino López controls armed forces	HIGH
Power Vacuum	Unclear who controls government; VP Rodriguez may be in Russia; no orderly transition	HIGH
Civil Conflict	Pro-Maduro and anti-Maduro factions taking to streets; armed militias present	HIGH
Second Wave	Trump stated U.S. is "prepared to do a second wave, a much bigger" one if needed	MEDIUM
Refugee Crisis	Colombia deploying border forces; potential mass displacement	MEDIUM
Iranian Response	Iran condemned strike; has existing tensions with U.S. over nuclear program	LOW-MED

Diplomatic Escalation Factors

Risk Factor	Description	Risk Level
UN Security Council	Emergency meeting requested by Russia, China, Latin American nations; U.S. likely to veto any resolution	HIGH
Allied Fracture	EU, UK, France distancing from action; Germany called it a "coup"; no NATO ally endorsed strike	HIGH
Regional Isolation	Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile all condemning action; only Argentina (Milei) supportive	HIGH
Oil Embargo	Trump confirmed embargo remains in effect; U.S. armada "remains poised"	ONGOING
Cuba Tensions	Cuban security may have been involved in firefight; vital oil supply to Cuba cut off	MEDIUM

Critical 48-Hour Variables

Key variables to monitor:

Whether Defense Minister Padrino López cooperates with or resists transition
Whether Vice President Rodriguez returns or forms government-in-exile
Whether opposition leader María Corina Machado can assert control
Russian and Chinese diplomatic countermoves
Scale of street protests and potential violence

Current Status

Maduro's Disposition

Currently aboard USS Iwo Jima
Expected stop at Guantanamo Bay before transfer to New York
Could appear in court as early as Monday
Charges: Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Weapons Charges

Venezuelan Government Status

VP Delcy Rodriguez reportedly left country for Russia
Foreign Minister Yván Gil claims Maduro "remains in charge"
Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello appeared with police, says government will not be "cowed"
State of emergency declared; defense forces mobilized
Government calling on citizens to take to streets

Opposition Position

María Corina Machado (2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner) declared:

"Venezuelans, the hour of freedom has arrived. The time has come for popular sovereignty and national sovereignty to reign in our country."

She called for restoration of human rights, free markets, free speech, and clean elections. Trump indicated he would "have to look" at whether Machado could lead Venezuela.

U.S. Position

Trump: U.S. will "run" Venezuela "until such time as a safe, proper and judicious transition can take place"
Oil embargo remains in full effect
"American armada remains poised in position"
U.S. "retains all military options" until demands are met
Sec. of State Rubio: "No further action" anticipated now that Maduro is in custody

Assessment

Operation Absolute Resolve represents a watershed moment in U.S. foreign policy, echoing the 1989 Panama intervention but with far greater geopolitical complexity. The operation succeeded in its primary objective of capturing Maduro, but has created significant uncertainty:

Domestic Political Division: Strong Republican support with few exceptions; unified Democratic opposition citing illegality and constitutional concerns
International Isolation: Near-universal condemnation of methods, even from allies; only Argentina's Milei explicitly supportive
Regional Destabilization: Left-leaning Latin American governments (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Chile) strongly opposed; refugee crisis potential
Governance Vacuum: Unclear who controls Venezuela; regime loyalists remain armed; opposition scattered
Escalation Potential: Next 48-72 hours critical; civil conflict possible; U.S. may need to "double down"

Sources & References

VenezuelaUS Military

Don Bradford