Roads Under Pressure: U.S. Trucking & Freight in 2026

Roads Under Pressure: U.S. Trucking & Freight in 2026 — National, California, and San Joaquin County

Summary

Trucks carry most of what Americans buy, so the health of the trucking industry shapes the price of goods across the economy. In 2026 that industry is under strain — but not because business is booming. The amount of freight to be moved is recovering only slowly after several weak years; what is really tightening the system is a shrinking number of trucking companies and, above all, a shrinking number of drivers. Many companies closed during the downturn, and the cost to move a shipment has risen even though the volume of goods being shipped has not surged.

The biggest force behind that squeeze is a set of new federal rules that are pushing drivers out of the workforce faster than new ones can replace them. Beginning in March 2026, the government sharply limited the commercial licenses available to many immigrant drivers, stepped up enforcement of an English-language requirement that can pull a driver off the road, and shut down hundreds of driver-training schools. Together, these changes could remove an estimated 5 to 12 percent of all U.S. truck drivers over the next two to three years.

California feels each of these pressures more sharply than any other state. It has the most expensive diesel fuel in the country, it has just scaled back its plan to require electric trucks, and more of its drivers are affected by the new licensing rules than anywhere else.

San Joaquin County sits where all of this converges. It is Northern California's largest center for warehouses and goods movement and one of the state's leading farm-export counties — both of which depend entirely on trucks — and the surrounding Central Valley is home to a large share of the immigrant drivers most affected by the new rules. The national and statewide pressures therefore arrive here all at once.

This report traces the state of U.S. trucking and freight transportation in three widening-then-narrowing frames: the nation, California, and San Joaquin County with Lodi at its center. The same three forces — fuel, cargo demand, and driver licensing — run through every level, but they land with very different force depending on where you stand. Figures are current as of June 2026; fuel prices and licensing enforcement both move quickly, so point figures should be read as snapshots.

Part I · National

The United States

After a freight recession that ran roughly from 2022 through 2024, the U.S. trucking market entered 2026 in what most analysts describe as a year of transition rather than expansion. General freight truckload is about a $300 billion industry spread across roughly 666,000 businesses, with 2026 revenue up only in the low single digits year over year (IBISWorld). Conditions are improving, but slowly and unevenly. What is tightening the market is less a demand surge than a contraction of supply: thousands of carriers exited during the downturn, and that thinning is now showing up in pricing, with national spot linehaul rates running about 27 percent above year-prior levels in early May and load rejections climbing.

Fuel: diesel pulled back from a spring peak, but the floor is high

Diesel has been the most volatile cost line of the year. A sharp run-up in the spring — driven by Middle East tensions and refinery strain — pushed the national on-highway average from about $3.90 a gallon in early March to a 2026 high near $5.64 by early May. It has since eased only modestly, to $5.21 the week of June 8 and $5.06 the week of June 15.

The direction is welcome, but the baseline remains steep — the early-June national average sat well over a dollar and a half a gallon above where diesel traded a year earlier, and the EIA projects a full-year 2026 average near $4.76. For carriers, the practical wrinkle is timing: fuel surcharges pegged to weekly federal data track the recent drop, while surcharges that reset monthly or quarterly can lag reality by weeks, turning the gap into a real margin question rather than an accounting one.

Cargo: demand is firming in pockets, with sharp regional splits

Freight volumes are leveling off after several slow years, and most forecasters expect gradual gains weighted toward the second half of 2026. Manufacturing has turned into a tailwind — the closely watched ISM factory index moved into expansion territory above 54 in May, lifting demand for hauling industrial goods and heavy equipment — while housing-related freight stays subdued under high mortgage rates. Capacity is tightest in the Southeast, Texas, and the Mountain West, so a single national shipping strategy no longer reflects how unevenly trucks are positioned. Separately, a 25 percent tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and components is raising the cost of replacing aging equipment.

Even with demand only firming, the supply squeeze is already showing up as higher shipping costs — and because long-term shipping contracts reset only once a year or quarter, much of the increase is still working its way through to the businesses that ship goods. The chart below shows roughly how far rates had moved by mid-2026 against a year earlier.

How Much U.S. Truckload Shipping Costs Have Risen (year over year, 2026)

Source: DAT Freight & Analytics; C.H. Robinson 2026 cost-per-mile forecast; industry reporting. Values are approximate midpoints — spot rates ran about 18–23% above a year earlier, typical contract renewals 12–18% (with some heavily traveled routes above 25%), and C.H. Robinson lifted its 2026 dry-van cost-per-mile forecast to about 17%.

Driver licensing: the fastest-moving and most consequential story

Three overlapping federal actions are shrinking the driver pool at once.

Federal driver-supply actions in 2026
Action What it does Scale
Non-domiciled CDL rule Limits non-domiciled commercial licenses to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders; Employment Authorization Documents no longer suffice. Effective March 16, 2026. About 194,000 to 200,000 holders affected; FMCSA estimates 97 percent cannot requalify
English-proficiency enforcement Failure to meet the federal English standard now triggers an out-of-service order, reversing a 2016 enforcement pause. About 500 drivers placed out of service in a single multi-state sweep ("Operation SafeDRIVE")
Training-provider purge Removal and re-vetting of entry-level driver training schools for inadequate instruction. Roughly 3,000 of 16,000 providers removed; about 550 schools closed

The near-term hit from the licensing rule is muted, because current non-domiciled holders can keep driving until their credentials expire. The larger effect is on replacement: far fewer new entrants can qualify. Stacked against an existing structural shortage, the projected withdrawal of drivers is substantial.

U.S. Commercial Driver Supply Under Pressure (drivers)

Source: American Trucking Associations (pre-existing shortage); FMCSA and J.B. Hunt / Transport Futures (Noel Perry) impact estimates. Combined estimate spans non-domiciled CDL and English-proficiency enforcement over two to three years.

Taken together, analysts estimate these actions could remove between 5 and 12 percent of all commercial license holders — roughly 214,000 to 437,000 drivers — over the next two to three years. This lands atop a workforce that already skews older, with an average driver age around 46 and turnover at large truckload carriers running 90 to 95 percent annually. The rule is under active litigation in the D.C. Circuit, and a Senate bill known as "Dalilah's Law" would write the restrictions into permanent statute.

The core risk: the supply-demand gap has narrowed so far that the dominant threat is no longer a demand collapse but a supply shock. If enough affected drivers exit at once, forecasters warn the industry could hit peak truck utilization as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, forcing carriers with already-thin margins to pass new costs through as higher rates.

Part II · State

California

Every national pressure arrives in California in amplified form. Trucks move roughly three-quarters of the state's cargo, so the cost and availability of trucking flow directly into the price of nearly everything Californians buy — and the state's exposure on fuel, regulation, and driver supply is the most acute in the country.

Fuel: the nation's most expensive diesel, by a wide margin

California diesel routinely runs well above the national average and is the most expensive in the country. Over 2026 it climbed from about $4.60 a gallon in January to a peak near $7.57 the week of April 6, held in the $7.20-$7.40 range through May, and eased to $6.94 the week of June 8 and $6.71 the week of June 15 — even after easing, roughly $1.70 a gallon above the U.S. average. In the Lodi area, monthly-average diesel ran in the range of about $5.40 to $7.20 over the same period, tracking the statewide pattern. The chart below traces California against the national average; the persistent gap between the two lines is the California premium, and it is structural rather than a temporary spike.

California vs. U.S. On-Highway Diesel Price, Selected Weeks of 2026

Source: EIA / USDA weekly on-highway diesel (all types), 2026. Upper line: California; lower line: U.S. average. California peaked near $7.57 the week of April 6 and was $6.71 by June 15, about $1.70 a gallon above the U.S. figure.

The premium stacks several layers: the nation's highest fuel taxes and fees (on the order of $1.80 to $1.90 per gallon on diesel); a unique low-emission fuel blend only a handful of refineries make, which isolates the state from the wider market; the loss of an estimated 18 to 23 percent of in-state refining capacity to two major closures; and per-gallon compliance costs from the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Cap-and-Invest programs. An LCFS update slated for July 1, 2026 could add up to an additional $0.65 a gallon. For freight operating on thin margins, this is a cost penalty competitors in other states simply do not face — one that feeds into grocery, agricultural, and consumer prices statewide.

Regulation: a partial retreat from the zero-emission truck mandate

California spent years building the nation's most aggressive plan to electrify trucking, through two linked rules: Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT), requiring manufacturers to sell rising shares of zero-emission trucks, and Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF), requiring fleets to buy them. Both have now been substantially rolled back. Unable to secure the required federal Clean Air Act waiver, the California Air Resources Board agreed in 2025 to repeal the ACF requirements for private, federal, and drayage (port) fleets — leaving the rule applying mainly to state and local government fleets — and to begin unwinding the ACT manufacturer mandate under a legal settlement, with final rulemaking due by August 31, 2026 and enforcement barred until then.

The reversal eases a compliance burden the industry argued was infeasible given charging gaps and limited truck availability; registrations of new heavy trucks in the state had reportedly fallen sharply during the uncertainty. But it also leaves the state's long-term emissions strategy for freight unsettled, and the policy direction could shift again with future administrations.

Driver licensing: California moved first, and hardest

No state has been more affected by the federal licensing crackdown. Under federal pressure — including a threat to withhold roughly $160 million in highway funds and to decertify the state's licensing program — California canceled on the order of 13,000 to 17,000 non-domiciled commercial licenses, including about 13,000 in a single day in early March, the largest single-state action in the country. The federal government also imposed a pause of up to a year on the state processing new non-domiciled applications.

That workforce is not evenly distributed. By industry estimates, roughly a third or more of California's commercial drivers are Sikh, members of a community of about 750,000 Punjabi Sikhs concentrated in the Central Valley; nationally, an estimated 150,000 Sikhs work in trucking (North American Punjabi Trucking Association; Sikh Coalition). Civil-rights and community groups — the Sikh Coalition, the Asian Law Caucus, and the Fresno-based Jakara Movement — sued the state, arguing many cancellations stemmed from minor clerical date mismatches and gave drivers no fair path to correct the record. The episode has idled drivers with clean records and, at some Stockton-area fleets, parked dozens of trucks while loan and insurance bills kept coming.

At the ports, the same rule concentrates on drayage — the short-haul moves between docks, rail, and warehouses. The Los Angeles/Long Beach and Oakland complexes draw a disproportionate share of non-domiciled drivers, and drayage fleets are dominated by one- to five-truck operators with little compliance infrastructure. Early carrier failures have begun to surface.

What's at stake: sizing the impact

Because trucks move roughly three-quarters of California's cargo, even modest per-mile increases ripple into grocery, restaurant, and farm-input prices. The national cost increases shown earlier land harder here, because California's diesel premium of roughly $1.70 a gallon means the same percentage rate rise translates into more dollars per load. On the labor side, the strain is measurable: commercial-license renewals in California ran about a quarter below the prior year this spring as the new rules took hold, on top of the 13,000 to 17,000 licenses already canceled. With an estimated third or more of the state's commercial drivers drawn from a Central Valley community now disproportionately affected, the workforce loss is geographically concentrated rather than spread thin.

The plausible range of outcomes is wide. At the milder end — if the license litigation restores many drivers, diesel keeps easing, and freight demand stays soft — Californians would see single-digit shipping-cost inflation, much of it absorbed in margins. At the harsher end — if enforcement accelerates as licenses expire, diesel re-spikes, and demand firms at the same time — cost increases could run well into double digits in 2026 and 2027, with one industry analyst estimating the licensing and English-proficiency rules together could remove 10 to 15 percent of national trucking capacity, a share for which California is among the most exposed. (An industry-funded study once projected that California's now-largely-repealed clean-fleet mandate could have raised trucking costs by up to 80 percent and household costs by about $2,500 a year; that figure was contested and the mandate has since been rolled back, but it illustrates how large the swing factors can be.)

What could help: levers and their limits

On fuel, the most immediate lever is contractual rather than physical: tying fuel surcharges to the weekly federal diesel number so they track prices down as well as up. On supply, renewable diesel already makes up the majority of California's diesel volume and carries a lower carbon intensity; a 2025 law permitting E15 gasoline is estimated to shave roughly 20 cents a gallon where stations upgrade equipment; and a separate measure lets the state temporarily suspend its summer fuel blend during price spikes. The pending July 2026 tightening of the Low Carbon Fuel Standard pushes the other way and has been the subject of repeated suspension debates — a reminder that fuel relief in California is as much a political question as a technical one.

On drivers, the licensing rule leaves a legal pathway open (H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders remain eligible), but the larger opportunities are domestic: recruitment and retention to slow turnover that costs carriers roughly $14,000 each time a driver leaves; the federal apprenticeship program that lets qualified 18-to-20-year-olds drive interstate, which could widen the pipeline but has not yet scaled; and employer-run English assessments and language training to keep current drivers compliant with the proficiency standard. For drivers caught by clerical errors, the state's correction-and-reissue process and the civil-rights litigation now in court could restore a meaningful share of canceled licenses — the single biggest swing factor for California's near-term driver supply. Limits are real, though: a federal pause on processing new non-domiciled applications, insurance rules that effectively require two years' experience, and drug-clearinghouse removals all keep the replacement pipeline narrow.

On the system itself, shippers and carriers are leaning harder on locked-in contract coverage and durable carrier relationships, on mode-shift analysis that moves suitable freight to rail or intermodal, and — for the small fleets that dominate California drayage — on freight factoring to keep cash flowing while invoices clear.

California's outlook: freight costs face persistent upward pressure from the supply side — high and volatile fuel, a shrinking and harder-to-replace driver pool, and a freight workforce whose Central Valley core is precisely the population most exposed to federal enforcement. The clean-truck retreat removes one near-term cost but adds long-term policy uncertainty. The net effect points toward tighter capacity and firmer rates within the state, with the heaviest exposure inland.

Part III · County & Local

San Joaquin County & Lodi

Few places in the country sit at the intersection of these forces as squarely as San Joaquin County. It is at once Northern California's premier goods-movement hub, one of the state's leading farm-export counties, and the geographic heart of the immigrant trucking workforce now under the most federal scrutiny. National and state risks do not just touch the county — they converge here.

The hub: Northern California's "Inland Empire"

San Joaquin County is the industrial center of gravity of the Northern California Megaregion, serving roughly 10 million people within a 75-mile radius and reaching into Nevada. Warehousing and logistics — about 145 million square feet of industrial space across Stockton, Lathrop, Tracy, and Manteca — is the county's fastest-growing industry, anchored by the convergence of Interstate 5 and State Route 99 and the Altamont Pass route to the Bay Area. Amazon is now the county's largest private employer, with more than 18 million square feet across the Central Valley and continued expansion underway; Tesla occupies over two million square feet in Lathrop; and recent build-to-suit projects for Georgia-Pacific, Pepsi, and Costco have clustered in Tracy. Industrial rents in the county rose by roughly a third between early 2020 and early 2025.

The Port of Stockton — California's largest inland deepwater port, reached via a navigable channel of more than 40 miles off the San Joaquin River — handled on the order of 3.7 million metric tons of cargo in fiscal 2024, ranking among the state's busiest ports by tonnage and first in dedicated bulk and break-bulk. It specializes in non-containerized agricultural and industrial goods (rice, grains, cement, fertilizer, sulfur), connects to both Union Pacific and BNSF rail, and trades with more than 55 countries. Stockton Metropolitan Airport adds an air-cargo dimension, with daily wide-body freight flights moving hundreds of millions of pounds a year.

The farms: a top export county that runs on trucks

San Joaquin is also one of California's agricultural powerhouses — and, notably, the state's leader in wine-grape production and acreage, ahead of both Sonoma and Napa, with more than 640,000 tons harvested across some 81,600 acres in a recent year. It ranks first in the state in egg and cherry production and is a major producer of milk, almonds, and walnuts. The county's two great employment pillars — goods-movement and agriculture — both depend directly on trucking, which is what makes a driver shortage a double exposure here.

San Joaquin County: Freight-Dependent Employment

Source: San Joaquin Council of Governments (warehousing & logistics); San Joaquin County Agricultural Commissioner 2023 Crop Report (agriculture). Both sectors rely on commercial trucking to move goods.

Roughly 34,000 agricultural jobs make up about 10 percent of the county workforce, and warehousing and logistics employs more than 20,000 — and virtually all of that volume reaches the Port of Stockton, the Port of Oakland, or air cargo by truck. That dependence cuts both ways: the county's nut growers are already squeezed by retaliatory tariffs abroad, with the cumulative tariff on U.S. tree nuts entering China reaching 35 percent, and any added freight cost or capacity shortfall compounds the pressure on export margins. Lodi sits at the center of the grape economy here; the broader wine sector's structural headwinds, documented elsewhere in LodiEye's reporting, mean local growers and wineries have little room to absorb higher shipping costs.

The workforce: where the licensing crackdown lands hardest

The Central Valley is the heartland of California's Punjabi Sikh trucking community — the very workforce at the center of the state's mass license cancellations. Stockton-area fleets were among the first to report idled trucks and mounting debt as drivers lost credentials, in some cases over clerical date mismatches rather than any safety issue. Because the county's economy leans so heavily on both warehousing and farm freight, a contraction in the local driver pool threatens distribution centers, harvest-season hauling, and port-bound export flows simultaneously.

What's at stake locally

The county's two great employment pillars are both on the line. Roughly 20,000 warehousing and logistics jobs and about 34,000 agricultural jobs — together a large share of local employment — depend on trucks running on schedule. The license cancellations are not abstract here: one Stockton trucking company reported losing about 35 drivers and roughly $2 million over four months while still owing some $200,000 a month on parked trucks, a concrete picture of how a paperwork-driven cancellation can strand a working business.

The farm side carries its own timing risk. San Joaquin exports to about 90 countries — walnuts (its top export at more than 70,000 metric tons), almonds, and cherries among them — and harvest freight is time-critical in a way that a distribution center's flow is not: a driver shortfall during the late-summer and fall harvest is far costlier than the same shortfall in a slow month, because perishable crops cannot wait for capacity. Layered on top is a 35 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. tree nuts that already compresses grower margins before any freight-cost increase. The range of local outcomes therefore runs from manageable — if licenses are restored and warehouse demand softens, easing pressure on the driver pool — to acute, if a harvest-season driver crunch, high diesel, and tariff drag all arrive at once.

The air: a public-health dimension

Freight here is also an environmental-justice issue. The San Joaquin Valley remains in federal non-attainment for ozone and fine-particle pollution, and diesel trucks and port operations are significant local contributors — Stockton records among the highest rates of asthma-related emergency visits in California. The retreat from the state's zero-emission truck mandate eases costs for carriers but slows the timeline for cleaning up the diesel emissions that fall heaviest on the county's lower-income neighborhoods near freight corridors.

What could help locally

The county's strongest structural advantage is that it does not depend on roads alone. The Port of Stockton is served by both the Union Pacific and BNSF railroads with on-dock rail loops, and the region has an existing template for taking trucks off the highway: the Green Trade Corridor, a container-on-barge service between Stockton and the Port of Oakland along the river. In its demonstration runs it removed tens of thousands of truck trips and cut associated emissions sharply, and a fully scaled service was projected to eliminate on the order of 180,000 truck trips a year across the I-80, I-205, and I-580 corridors. Its history is also a caution: the barge service struggled to find committed shipper volume — companies were reluctant to break existing trucking contracts — and operating funding proved hard to sustain, so it scaled back to as-needed runs. Reviving it as a genuine pressure valve would take committed cargo and a stable operator, not just the infrastructure, which already exists.

On the workforce, the most durable local response is a home-grown driver pipeline: regional commercial-driver and logistics training (programs such as the Manteca-area VOLT Institute) paired with the federal apprenticeship pathway for younger drivers can, over time, rebuild a pool that serves both warehouses and farms. Nearer term, growers and shippers can lock in harvest-season capacity early and deepen relationships with reliable carriers rather than chasing the cheapest spot rate, and small Central Valley fleets can use freight factoring to stay solvent while invoices clear. Longer term, the Port of Stockton's clean-air and electrification planning offers a path to cut the diesel emissions that weigh on nearby neighborhoods — though, as the statewide retreat from the zero-emission truck rules shows, that transition now rests on incentives and voluntary investment rather than mandates.

What to watch locally

The near-term signals to track in San Joaquin County are concrete: warehouse absorption and any softening in distribution-center hiring (early layoff notices have appeared in Tracy); the pace and outcome of the California license-cancellation litigation, which will determine how many local drivers return to work; the July 2026 fuel-standard change and its pass-through to Central Valley diesel; and tariff developments affecting nut and grape exports moving through the Port of Stockton. For a county whose prosperity is built on moving goods, the cost and availability of drivers and diesel are not abstractions — they are the hinge on which both the warehouse and the farm economy turn.

LodiEye is the original civic research and analysis arm of Lodi411.com, a citizen-run civic data and transparency platform serving Lodi, California and San Joaquin County. Our work emphasizes primary sources, public data, and full source transparency so readers can check every claim. LodiEye is civic research and analysis rather than traditional newsroom journalism — a complement to, not a substitute for, the professional news organizations that cover this region. For traditional reporting on Lodi, San Joaquin County, and the broader region, we also encourage readers to consult the Lodi News-Sentinel, Stocktonia, The Sacramento Bee, CalMatters, and other established news outlets.

This LodiEye report was produced using artificial intelligence tools under the direction and review of the founder. Lodi411 uses multiple AI platforms in its research and publication workflow, including Anthropic's Claude (primarily Opus and Sonnet models) and Perplexity AI across a variety of large language models offered by each. These tools were used in the following capacities:

Source Discovery: AI-assisted search and retrieval identified federal data (EIA fuel prices, FMCSA rulemakings and FAQs), industry and market analysis (ATA, DAT, FTR, ACT Research, IBISWorld, J.B. Hunt), state and regional sources (CARB, California DMV, San Joaquin Council of Governments, San Joaquin County Economic Development, Port of Stockton), and reporting from CalMatters, FreightWaves, CBS Sacramento, Stocktonia, and others. Perplexity AI supported initial discovery and real-time retrieval; Claude was used for deeper analysis of identified sources.

Credibility Validation: AI cross-referenced claims across multiple independent sources, prioritizing government datasets and agency rulings, then institutional and industry analysis, then news reporting. Multiple AI models were used to independently verify key figures — diesel prices, driver-impact estimates, and county economic data — and to flag inconsistencies, including divergent Port of Stockton tonnage figures, which are stated conservatively.

Analysis and Synthesis: Claude Opus and Sonnet assisted in connecting national trends to their California and San Joaquin County effects, using a three-tier (national / state / county) analytical frame and tracing the shared throughline of fuel cost, cargo demand, and driver-licensing enforcement across each level.

Presentation: Claude assisted in drafting, structuring, and formatting the report for clarity, including the four inline data visualizations (California vs. U.S. diesel prices, U.S. truckload cost increases, driver-supply pressure, and county freight-dependent employment), the impact-range and possible-response sections for California and San Joaquin County, and the summary and detail callouts.

Final Review: Multiple AI models reviewed the completed draft for factual consistency, source attribution accuracy, logical coherence, and balanced presentation. Throughout the process, the editor sets the report's goals, scope, and tone; creates and shapes draft content; reviews and edits the report; integrates independent fact checks; and reviews the AI cross-checks and validations. Multi-tool cross-checking across independent models and sources is the primary error-reduction mechanism.

Lodi411/LodiEye believes that transparency about how our research is produced — including our use of AI under human direction — strengthens trust with readers and the broader information ecosystem. Readers who spot an error are encouraged to write editor@lodi411.com so we can correct it.

References

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