Thanksgiving Dinner Prices: 2024 vs 2025

Economy

Nov 24

Overview

Good news for Lodi families: Overall Thanksgiving dinner costs have decreased by approximately 3-5% in 2025 compared to 2024, bucking recent inflationary trends. However, California families, including those in Lodi and San Joaquin County, continue to pay 31-32% more than the national average. A traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people in the Lodi area costs approximately $72-74 in 2025, down from $75-77 in 2024.

The centerpiece turkey has seen the most dramatic price drop at 25% lower than last year, while canned goods—particularly cranberry sauce (up 45.7%) and stuffing (up 20.5%)—have experienced the steepest increases due to steel tariffs affecting can manufacturing.

Detailed Cost Comparison: 2024 vs 2025

Overall Meal Costs (Traditional Dinner for 10 People):

Category	2024	2025	Change
National Average (10 people)	$58.08	$55.18	-5.0%
Cost Per Person - National	$5.81	$5.52	-5.0%
California Average (10 people)	~$75.00	$72.61	-3.2%
Cost Per Person - California	$7.50	$7.26	-3.2%
Lodi/San Joaquin County (10 people)	$75.00-$77.00	$72.00-$74.00	-3.9%

California's Thanksgiving dinner costs $17.43 more than the national average—a 31.6% premium. This represents one of the highest regional price differentials in the country, with only Hawaii exceeding California's costs<.

Items with Biggest Price Changes (2024 to 2025)

Largest Increases:

Canned Cranberry Sauce: +45.7% ($2.34 → $3.41 in CA)
- Steel tariffs (increased from 25% to 50% in June 2025) significantly impacted canned goods
- Approximately 80% of canned goods rely on imported steel
Stuffing Mix: +20.5% ($3.02 → $3.64 in CA)
- General food inflation affecting packaged goods
Fresh Cranberries: +12.1% ($2.40 → $2.69 in CA)<
Sweet Potatoes: +6.6% ($5.00 → $5.33 in CA)
Whipping Cream: +6.4% ($2.50 → $2.66 in CA)
Frozen Green Peas: +5.3% ($3.00 → $3.16 in CA)<
Dinner Rolls: +4.5% ($4.00 → $4.18 in CA)>

Largest Decrease:

Turkey (16 lb frozen): -25.4% ($39.85 → $29.72 in CA)

Despite wholesale prices up 75% due to avian flu, retailers are offering aggressive discounts to attract customers
Turkey is being used as a "loss leader" to drive store traffic
California turkey prices in 2024 averaged $2.66/lb; in 2025 they're $1.86/lb

California vs National Price Comparison (2025)

Lodi and San Joaquin County residents face significantly higher costs than the national average for nearly every Thanksgiving item:

Items Where California Pays the Most Premium:

Item	CA 2025 Price	US 2025 Price	CA Premium
Frozen Green Peas (1 lb)	$3.16	$2.03	+55.7%
Cranberry Sauce (canned)	$3.41	$2.28	+49.6%
Whole Milk (1 gal)	$5.57	$3.73	+49.3%
Whipping Cream (1/2 pint)	$2.66	$1.87	+42.2%
Turkey (16 lb frozen)	$29.72	$21.50	+38.2%
Sweet Potatoes (3 lbs)	$5.33	$4.00	+33.3%

The Western Region (which includes California) has the highest Thanksgiving dinner costs at $61.75, compared to the South at $50.01.

Key Market Factors Affecting 2025 Prices

1. Avian Flu Impact on Turkey:

Over 3 million turkeys lost to bird flu in 2025 alone
US turkey population at a 40-year low
124 commercial turkey farm outbreaks in 2025
Wholesale turkey prices up 44-75% year-over-year
Retailers absorbing costs through promotional pricing

2. Steel Tariffs Impact on Canned Goods:

Tariffs doubled from 25% to 50% in June 2025
Can manufacturers' total costs increased up to 12%
Canned fruits up 4.8%, canned vegetables up 4.9%
Further price increases expected in 2026-2027 as annual contracts renew

3. General Food Inflation:

Overall "food at home" prices up 2.7% year-over-year
Meat, poultry, fish, and eggs up 5.2%
Fresh produce up only 1.2%—fresh items may offer better value

Specific Recommendations for Lodi Shoppers

Best Overall Value Stores in Lodi:

1. FoodMaxx (610 W. Kettleman Lane, Lodi, CA 95240)

BEST DEAL: Complete Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people under $5 per person ($50 total)

Turkey: $0.35/lb (Honeysuckle brand frozen) — tied for lowest price
Fresh turkey: $0.87/lb
Hours: 6:00 AM - 10:00 PM daily
Phone: (209) 334-6853
Savings tip: Sign up for MAXXimizers loyalty program for digital coupons

2. Save Mart (530 West Lodi Ave, Lodi, CA 95240)

Complete Thanksgiving dinner for 10: Under $6 per person ($60 total)
Turkey: $0.35/lb (Honeysuckle frozen) — tied for lowest price
Fresh turkey: $0.87/lb
Military discount: 10% off for active duty on Monday, November 24
$15 breakfast bundle (feeds 4)
50% off select meat & produce events throughout November
30% off wine sale (buy 4+ bottles)
4X rewards on select items
Hours: 6:00 AM - 10:00 PM daily
Phone: (209) 339-7170
"Right By You" Affordability Promise includes year-end savings

3. Walmart Supercenter (1601 S Lower Sacramento Rd, Lodi, CA 95242)

Thanksgiving meal basket: $40 for 10 people ($4/person)
Butterball turkey: $0.97/lb (lowest since 2019)
Over 20 items included (turkey, stuffing, potatoes, vegetables, cranberry sauce, gravy, rolls, pie)
One-click ordering available online with free pickup or delivery
Hours: 6:00 AM - 11:00 PM
Phone: (209) 368-6696
Second location: 2350 W Kettleman Ln, Lodi

Premium/Convenience Option:

4. Costco (2680 Reynolds Ranch Pkwy, Lodi, CA 95240-6848)

Gourmet Thanksgiving dinner: $199.99 (serves 8-10, about $20-25/person)
Heat-and-serve prepared meal — saves time
Includes: 5 lbs turkey breast, mashed potatoes, gravy, stuffing, mac & cheese, corn, green bean casserole, cranberry relish, 12 rolls, pumpkin pie, apple cobbler
Must order by November 14 for delivery
Additional deals: Pumpkin pie $5.99, rotisserie chicken $4.99
Hours: Mon-Fri 10:00 AM - 8:30 PM, Sat-Sun 9:30 AM - 7:00 PM (Gold Star members)
Closed Thanksgiving Day
Phone: (209) 366-7300

Fresh Produce & Specialty Items:

5. Sprouts Farmers Market (250 E. Harney Ln, Lodi, CA 95240)

Fresh produce at competitive prices
Organic and specialty options
Fresh sushi, sandwich bar, deli catering trays
Hours: 7:00 AM - 10:00 PM daily
Phone: (209) 371-6656

6. Raley's (311 S Lower Sacramento Rd, Lodi)

Known for quality produce
Similar pricing to Save Mart

7. Safeway (2449 W Kettleman Ln, Lodi)

Open on Thanksgiving Day (until 6:00 PM)
4X points promotion on select items

Additional Nearby Options:

For WinCo Foods: Nearest locations in Stockton (5110 Montauban Ave) and Galt (814 A St)

Free turkey promotion: Spend $125 in one transaction between Nov 19-27, get free turkey
Known for bulk foods and employee-owned discount prices

Trader Joe's: Nearest location in Stockton (6535 Pacific Ave)

Unique specialty items and affordable wines

Target: Multiple Lodi locations

Thanksgiving meal for 4 people under $20
Smaller household option

Money-Saving Strategies for Lodi Families

Shop Loss Leaders: Turkey prices at $0.35-$0.97/lb represent 50-75% discounts from wholesale costs. Buy turkey at FoodMaxx or Save Mart, shop other items where competitive.
Choose Fresh Over Canned: Fresh produce prices up only 1.2% vs canned goods up 4.8-4.9%. Make cranberry sauce from scratch using fresh cranberries — saves money and avoids the 45.7% canned price increase.
Compare Store Brands vs Name Brands: Private label products can save 20-30%. Wells Fargo analysis shows $80 for store brands vs $95 for name brands (national average).
Bundle Deals: Complete meal packages from FoodMaxx ($50) or Save Mart ($60) offer better value than individual shopping.
Loyalty Programs: Save Mart Rewards: 4X points in November. FoodMaxx MAXXimizers: Digital coupons and member-only offers.
Military & Senior Discounts: Save Mart: 10% military discount Nov 24. FoodMaxx: 5% military discount Nov 24.
Timing Matters: Shop early in the week (avoid Nov 27, Costco's busiest day).
Consider Prepared Options for Time Savings: Costco's $200 prepared meal = $20-25/person but saves 6+ hours of cooking.
Food Assistance Resources: San Joaquin County held 22 free food distributions in November. Save Mart "Friends Feeding Friends" campaign: Purchase $5-10 Pantry Packs to support local food banks with matching funds.

Regional Context: Why California Costs More

California's 31.6% Thanksgiving premium over the national average stems from several factors:

Higher transportation costs to West Coast
State regulations and labor costs
Regional supply chain challenges
Higher cost of living reflected in retail prices

The Western region averages $61.75 vs the South at $50.01 — a $11.74 difference for the same meal. Within California, urban areas typically cost more than rural regions, placing San Joaquin County in a mid-range position.

Looking Ahead

Positive trends:

Third consecutive year of declining Thanksgiving costs nationally
Aggressive retail competition driving promotional pricing
Turkey retail prices may remain low through the season despite wholesale increases

Concerns for future years:

Steel tariffs will continue impacting canned goods through 2026-2027
Ongoing avian flu outbreaks could affect 2026 turkey supply
Wholesale turkey prices remain elevated at 44-75% above 2024 levels

Conclusion

Lodi families can save significantly on their 2025 Thanksgiving dinner by shopping strategically. FoodMaxx offers the best overall value at $50 for a complete meal for 10 people ($5/person), representing a 30% savings over California's $72.61 average. The dramatic 25% drop in turkey prices provides the year's best bargain, while smart shoppers should focus on fresh produce over canned goods to avoid tariff-driven price increases.

Despite paying 32% more than the national average, Lodi residents have access to competitive local options that can bring costs in line with or below California state averages through promotional meal bundles and strategic shopping.

References

GroceryLodi

Don Bradford