U.S. Immigration, Deportation & Labor Force Impact
U.S. Immigration, Deportation & Labor Force Impact
A Comprehensive Analysis: 2005–2025 | With Focus on San Joaquin County & Lodi, California
Published March 2, 2026 = LodiEye
Key Findings
Over two decades, the U.S. has experienced dramatic swings in legal immigration, illegal border crossings, and deportations—driven by shifting policies across four presidential administrations. The Trump administration's 2025 immigration crackdown has produced an 80% collapse in net immigration, removed 1.2 million immigrants from the labor force, and triggered labor shortages in agriculture, construction, and services. In San Joaquin County—where 25% of residents are foreign-born and 11% of employment is in agriculture—the impacts are especially acute: ICE raids in the Central Valley, school absenteeism spikes, and farm labor shortages threatening the region's $3.5 billion agricultural economy.
Table of Contents
- Part 1: National Immigration Trends (2005–2025)
- Part 2: Legal Immigration by Category & Country
- Part 3: Impact on the U.S. Labor Force
- Part 4: Wage Effects on U.S.-Born Workers
- Part 5: San Joaquin County & Lodi Impact Analysis
- References
Part 1: National Immigration Trends (2005–2025)
The chart below shows the three primary dimensions of U.S. immigration activity by fiscal year: lawful permanent residents admitted (green cards), illegal border crossings (apprehensions/encounters), and deportations (ICE removals).
Sources: DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, CBP, ICE. FY2024–2025 figures are partially estimated.
Legal Immigration
The U.S. consistently admitted roughly 1 million lawful permanent residents per year from 2005 to 2019, with annual totals ranging from about 990,000 to 1.27 million. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp drop to ~707,000 in FY2020 and ~740,000 in FY2021. Numbers recovered to over 1.17 million by FY2023, but are expected to decline under the Trump administration's more restrictive policies.
Illegal Border Crossings
Southwest border apprehensions fell steadily from ~1.19 million in FY2005 to a low of ~304,000 in FY2017. Numbers surged under Biden, hitting an all-time high of ~2.48 million encounters in FY2023. Under Trump's second term, crossings plummeted—about 8,450 apprehensions in February 2025, the lowest monthly total in at least 25 years. By January 2026, only ~6,100 were recorded, a 79% year-over-year decline.
Deportations & Removals
Deportations peaked under Obama at ~410,000 in FY2012. Numbers declined through Obama's second term and Trump's first term, then collapsed under Biden to 59,000 in FY2021. Trump's second administration dramatically ramped up removals—ICE reported ~234,000 removals in the portion of FY2025 after inauguration. The administration claimed over 2 million removed or "self-deported" by October 2025, though independent analysts estimated realistic figures at roughly one-tenth of the self-deportation claims.
Trends by Administration
| Period | Legal Immigration (avg/yr) | Illegal Crossings (avg/yr) | Deportations (avg/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bush (2005–2008) | ~1.14M | ~965K | ~304K |
| Obama (2009–2016) | ~1.06M | ~419K | ~371K |
| Trump 1st (2017–2020) | ~990K | ~722K | ~234K |
| Biden (2021–2024) | ~910K | ~1.89M | ~136K |
| Trump 2nd (2025) | ~850K (est.) | ~250K (est.) | ~320K (est.) |
Part 2: Legal Immigration by Category & Country
The U.S. grants lawful permanent residence through several main pathways. Family-based immigration has been the dominant category since the 1960s, consistently accounting for 55–65% of all green cards issued.
Source: DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics. Categories: Family-sponsored, Employment-based, Refugee/Asylee adjustments, Diversity Visa Lottery, Other.
Admission Categories
| Category | Share of Total | Annual Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family-Based | 55–65% | 456K–804K | Immediate relatives of U.S. citizens plus family preference |
| Employment-Based | 12–22% | 137K–246K | Capped at ~140K principals/yr; spiked during COVID backlog clearing |
| Refugee/Asylee | 10–15% | 48K–216K | Peaked in 2006 (backlog processing); collapsed 2020–2021 |
| Diversity Visa | 4–5% | 12K–55K | Up to 55K/yr for underrepresented countries |
| Other | 3–6% | 23K–66K | Special immigrants, cancellation of removal, etc. |
Top Countries of Origin
Source: DHS Office of Immigration Statistics. Shows top six countries by green cards issued, FY2016–2023.
| Country | Avg. Annual Green Cards (2016–2023) | Share of Total | Primary Pathway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | ~146,000 | ~13% | Family-based |
| India | ~72,000 | ~7% | Employment-based |
| China | ~62,000 | ~6% | Employment & family |
| Cuba | ~50,000 | ~5% | Refugee/asylee & family |
| Dominican Republic | ~48,000 | ~4% | Family-based |
| Philippines | ~41,000 | ~4% | Family-based |
North America (including Central America and the Caribbean) and Asia each account for roughly 35–42% of all green cards, with Africa at ~10% and Europe at ~7%. South America's share has grown from under 5% to nearly 10% in recent years, driven by Venezuelan, Colombian, and Brazilian migration.
Part 3: Impact on the U.S. Labor Force
Goldman Sachs estimates net immigration has collapsed by 80% from historical norms, fundamentally altering the nation's labor supply. The foreign-born labor force shrank by over 1 million workers between January and August 2025.
Labor Force Participation
A central claim of immigration restrictionists—that fewer immigrants would draw native-born Americans back into the workforce—has not materialized. The labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers fell slightly from 61.4% in January 2025 to 61.2% in January 2026. The Minneapolis Fed found that states and sectors with more unauthorized workers saw relatively higher payroll growth, not lower.
Most Affected Industries
| Industry | Immigrant Share of Workforce | Impact Observed |
|---|---|---|
| Agriculture | 76% (CA) | Harvest disruptions; 14% of CA farmers reduced production |
| Construction | ~30% | Project delays, rising costs |
| Food Processing & Hospitality | ~25% | Staffing shortages, reduced hours |
| Caregiving & Healthcare | ~25% | Growing gaps in elder care and home health |
| Transportation | ~20% | Driver shortages, logistics delays |
Economic Growth Implications
The San Francisco Fed estimated that reduced immigration lowered prime-age labor force growth by 0.8 percentage points in 2025. The CBO projects immigration will account for essentially 100% of total U.S. population growth over the next decade. Brookings estimated net migration may have turned negative in 2025—something not seen since the Great Depression.
Illustrative projection based on CBO, NFAP, and Brookings estimates of workforce impact under current immigration restrictions.
Part 4: Wage Effects on U.S.-Born Workers
Contrary to expectations that reducing immigration would boost wages for U.S.-born workers, the data through early 2026 shows wage growth has actually slowed, and native-born employment has declined rather than expanded.
Real Wage Growth Is Decelerating
Real average hourly earnings grew just 1.2% from January 2025 to January 2026 (BLS). The Cleveland Fed found that from 2020 through Q3 2025, workers at the 10th percentile saw real wages rise 9.7%, while 90th-percentile workers gained 4.5%—but in dollar terms, the gap widened ($1.34 vs. $3.09).
Low-Wage Workers Hit Hardest
Source: Minneapolis Fed. Real wage growth by income percentile, comparing 2023–2024 pace to 2025 performance.
| Wage Group | Real Wage Growth (2023–24) | Real Wage Growth (2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low-wage (10th percentile) | ~3.9% | ~1.5% | −2.4 pts |
| Median (50th percentile) | ~3.6% | ~2.1% | −1.5 pts |
| High-wage (90th percentile) | ~3.1% | ~2.4% | −0.7 pts |
Why Hasn't Reduced Immigration Helped?
- Complementary labor: Immigrants and native-born workers fill different roles. Removing immigrants eliminates jobs that support other jobs—construction laborers whose absence halts projects, idling native-born supervisors and tradespeople.
- Reduced economic activity: Mass deportation and immigration reductions shrink local consumer spending, business revenue, and tax bases, leading to fewer jobs overall.
- Inflationary pressure offsets gains: Even if removing unauthorized immigrants raises nominal wages by 0.15%, those gains are wiped out by higher consumer prices—especially in agriculture (~1% increase).
- Long-run wages decline: Wharton's Penn Budget Model projected that under mass deportation, authorized low-skilled wages would rise 1.1% by 2034 but fall 0.6% by 2054.
The "Chilling Effect"
Immigration enforcement is associated with a 100% increase in minimum wage violations for Hispanic workers and a 40% increase for non-Hispanic workers. Rather than improving conditions, enforcement has chilled worker organizing across the board, depressing standards for all low-wage workers.
Part 5: San Joaquin County & Lodi Impact Analysis
San Joaquin County sits at the intersection of multiple immigration-related pressures. With 25.2% of its population foreign-born (approximately 218,700 people), 11% of employment in agriculture, and a Hispanic population of 353,000 (44% of total), the county is among the most exposed regions in California to the consequences of immigration enforcement and labor force contraction.
Immigrant Profile of San Joaquin County
According to USC Dornsife research, approximately 156,000 immigrants live in San Joaquin County, comprising 23% of the population. More than 75% of all immigrants arrived since 1980, with 21% arriving in the last decade. About 52% originate from Mexico, followed by Tagalog speakers (10%), and various South and Southeast Asian communities. Among immigrants, 16% are unemployed, 33% live in linguistically isolated households, and 18% are classified as working poor—well above state averages.
San Joaquin County Immigrant Workforce
| Sector | Immigrant Share | U.S.-Born Share |
|---|---|---|
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting | 11% | 3% |
| Manufacturing | 13% | 9% |
| Retail Trade | 16% | 14% |
| Healthcare & Social Assistance | 19% | 29% |
Source: USC Dornsife Economic Roundtable, "San Joaquin" report
ICE Enforcement in the Central Valley
ICE deported at least 8,200 people from California between January and September 2025—more than double the approximately 4,000 deportations in all of 2024. Enforcement expanded aggressively into agricultural areas: in early January 2025, Border Patrol conducted a three-day "fishing expedition" raid in Kern County in the southern San Joaquin Valley. By June 2025, ICE had expanded raids into California's agricultural heartland, with reports of agents stopping vehicles near schools, loitering near agricultural properties, and targeting Home Depot parking lots and construction sites.
Central Valley Raid Impact: Eyewitness Accounts
"We are seeing an uptick in the chaotic presence of immigration enforcement, particularly the Border Patrol," said Elizabeth Strater, VP of the United Farm Workers. "We're seeing it in multiple areas." The ACLU sued DHS on behalf of the UFW and five Kern County residents, alleging the raids "indiscriminately targeted people of color who appeared to be farmworkers or day laborers."
From Modesto to Bakersfield, rumors of raids changed everyday life. School attendance dropped. Families reported being afraid to go outside. Attendance in the Fresno Diocese churches fell noticeably.
School Absenteeism Spike
A Stanford/Hoover Institution study found that immigration raids in Central California increased student absences by 22% in the months following enforcement actions. The effects were not limited to immigrant families—absenteeism rose across entire communities as fear spread through social networks.
Farm Labor Crisis
California accounts for about one-third of the nation's farmworkers and produces more than one-third of U.S. vegetables and about three-quarters of its fruits and nuts. A statewide survey by Michigan State University and the California Farm Bureau (late 2025/early 2026) of more than 500 farmers across 50 counties found:
- 14% of respondents reduced production due to anticipated labor instability or inability to harvest crops
- Labor-intensive fruit and vegetable growers were most likely to turn to H-2A guestworkers
- California lost 400 farms in 2025 as growers faced rising operational costs and worker shortages
- California's rising minimum wage ($20/hr for fast food, $16/hr general) continues to drive up farm labor costs
Lodi & San Joaquin County Agriculture
Lodi sits at the heart of San Joaquin County's agricultural economy, known for wine grapes, cherries, and other specialty crops. The region's agriculture depends heavily on immigrant labor—76% of California farmworkers are immigrants. Cal/OSHA announced a new agricultural enforcement unit in February 2024 with offices in El Centro, Salinas, and Lodi, though by May only 15 of 54 budgeted positions had been filled.
San Joaquin County's agricultural sector employs approximately 38,000 workers, with immigrants representing a disproportionate share (11% of immigrant employment vs. 3% for U.S.-born). The loss of even a fraction of this workforce during harvest season can result in millions of dollars in crop losses for perishable commodities like cherries and grapes.
Economic Impact Projections
The Bay Area Council Economic Institute estimated in February 2026 that mass deportation would cost California $275 billion in economic output. For San Joaquin County specifically, with 39% of households containing at least one immigrant, the ripple effects extend far beyond agriculture:
- Consumer spending: Immigrants in SJ County earn a median household income of $33,310; their spending supports retail, housing, and services
- Tax base: Immigrant workers contribute payroll, sales, and property taxes that fund schools, infrastructure, and emergency services
- Housing market: Immigrant departure reduces rental demand, potentially destabilizing landlords and neighborhood economies
- Healthcare: SJ County already has healthcare worker shortages; losing immigrant healthcare workers (19% of immigrant employment) worsens access
Community Response
Governor Newsom launched a new state investment and philanthropic collaboration in February 2026 to support immigrants and communities facing federal enforcement. Farm organizations held training workshops on employer and worker rights under California law regarding immigration enforcement access to worksites. The California Budget Center warned that deportations and immigration limits "threaten California families and the economy" in a September 2025 report.
The San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach, relying on existing workforce development infrastructure (WorkNet, CEDS) and avoiding direct engagement with the politically charged intersection of immigration enforcement and labor economics. The most meaningful local government response has come from Sheriff Withrow's direct community outreach to farmworkers—an action taken independently of the Board. Given that 11% of county employment is in agriculture and the county's own CEDS identifies labor shortages and agricultural vulnerability as existential threats, the absence of Board action on this issue is a notable gap in local governance.
San Joaquin County's demographic trajectory—with the Hispanic population projected to grow from 353,000 in 2025 to 480,000 by 2050—means immigration policy will remain a defining force shaping the county's economic future for decades.
References
- United States Immigration Statistics — Wikipedia
- Legal Immigration to the United States, 1820–Present — Migration Policy Institute
- Key Findings About U.S. Immigrants — Pew Research Center (Aug 2025)
- Illegal Border Crossings Plunge Amid Trump Crackdown — CBS News (Mar 2025)
- What 30+ Years of Deportations Show Across 5 Presidents — Latino News Network (Aug 2025)
- Migrant Encounters at the US-Mexico Border — USAFacts (Feb 2026)
- Trump Administration Record on Detention and Removals — TRAC (Nov 2025)
- Deportation in the Second Trump Administration — Wikipedia
- Permanent Legal Immigration: Policy Overview — Congressional Research Service
- How the United States Immigration System Works — American Immigration Council
- More People Moving Out of U.S. Than In — Fortune (Feb 2026)
- Reducing Immigration Does Not Help U.S. Workers — Forbes (Feb 2026)
- Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Flows — Brookings (Jan 2026)
- Trump Crackdown Drives 80% Plunge in Immigrant Employment — Fortune (Feb 2026)
- Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics — SF Fed (Nov 2025)
- U.S. Workforce Challenges — Forum Together (Jan 2026)
- Immigration Can't Explain Declining Employment Growth — Minneapolis Fed (Oct 2025)
- U.S.-Born Labor Force Will Shrink — Economic Policy Institute (Oct 2025)
- The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056 — CBO (Jan 2026)
- Real Hourly Wage Growth Across the Lower Half — Cleveland Fed (Feb 2026)
- Mass Deportation: Fiscal and Economic Effects — Wharton Penn Budget Model (Jul 2025)
- Real Earnings Summary — Bureau of Labor Statistics (Feb 2026)
- How Trump's Immigration Crackdown Chills Organizing — Workday Magazine (Jan 2026)
- Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Isn't Boosting Hiring — CNN (Feb 2026)
- San Joaquin County QuickFacts — U.S. Census Bureau
- San Joaquin County Immigrant Profile — USC Dornsife (PDF)
- San Joaquin County Demographic & Employment Forecast — SJCOG (Feb 2025)
- How Trump's Immigration Blitz Changed Life in CA Farm Towns — CalMatters (Nov 2025)
- ICE Expands Raids into California's Agricultural Heartland — LA Times (Jun 2025)
- Immigration Raids Increased Student Absences for Months — Hoover Institution (Jun 2025)
- California Survey Links Enforcement Fears to Farm Labor Losses — FreshPlaza (Feb 2026)
- Economic Impact of Mass Deportation in California — Bay Area Council Economic Institute (Feb 2026)
- California ICE Deportations Surged in 2025 — KTVU (Jan 2026)
- Deportations Threaten California Families & Economy — CA Budget Center (Sep 2025)
- Governor Newsom Launches Immigrant Community Support — Office of the Governor (Feb 2026)
- Illegal Immigration in the San Joaquin Valley — The Valley Citizen (Nov 2024)
Report compiled by Lodi411.com · March 2, 2026 · Contact: info@lodi411.com