US Religion and Politics - A 20 Year History

United States

Sep 26

Executive Summary

Over the past two decades, American religious demographics and their political alignments have undergone dramatic transformations that have reshaped the nation's political landscape. Christianity has declined from 78% of the population in 2007 to 62% in 2024, while the religiously unaffiliated have nearly doubled from 16% to 30%. This demographic shift has been accompanied by intensifying political polarization along religious lines, with white evangelicals becoming the Republican Party's most loyal constituency (70% Republican affiliation) while religiously unaffiliated Americans have emerged as a Democratic stronghold (70% Democratic affiliation). The rise of Christian nationalism, embraced by 30% of Americans and particularly influential in Southern and Midwestern states, has become a defining force in conservative politics, culminating in events like January 6, 2021, and influencing initiatives like Project 2025.

Major Religious Groups: Demographics and Trends

Evangelical Protestants

Evangelical Protestants remain America's largest Protestant tradition but have experienced gradual decline, dropping from 26.3% of the population in 2007 to 23% in 2024. With approximately 75 million adherents, evangelicals maintain extraordinary religious commitment, with 64% attending services weekly or more. The median age of evangelicals is 49, reflecting an aging demographic that struggles to attract younger generations.

Regional Concentration: Heavily concentrated in the South (35% of population) and Midwest (20%), forming the traditional "Bible Belt". States like Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas have evangelical populations exceeding 40%.
Political Objectives: White evangelicals have become the Republican Party's most reliable voting bloc, with 80% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning. Their political priorities include opposing abortion rights, defending religious liberty exemptions, promoting "traditional" family structures, and increasingly, advancing Christian nationalist ideology. Since 2016, white evangelical support for Trump has intensified from 81% to 84% in 2020.

Catholics

The Catholic population has declined from 23.9% in 2007 to 19% in 2024, representing approximately 62 million Americans. This decline masks significant demographic transformation, as white Catholics have decreased while Hispanic Catholics have grown to comprise 38% of all US Catholics.

Regional Distribution: Most concentrated in the Northeast (30% of population) and Midwest (22%). States like Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut have the highest Catholic percentages.
Political Alignment: Catholics are divided along racial lines. White Catholics lean Republican (60%), while Hispanic Catholics favor Democrats (54%). This division has intensified, with Hispanic Catholics showing a rightward shift in 2024, particularly in Florida and Texas. Catholic voting has swung between parties in presidential elections, supporting Obama in 2008, splitting evenly in 2012, and narrowly backing Trump in 2016 and 2020.

Mainline Protestants

Mainline Protestants have experienced the steepest decline of any major Christian tradition, falling from 18.1% in 2007 to just 11% in 2024. This represents approximately 36 million Americans, with a median age of 55 - the oldest of any major religious group.

Demographics: Disproportionately white (88%), educated, and concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast. Major denominations include United Methodists, ELCA Lutherans, Presbyterians (PCUSA), and Episcopalians.
Political Identity: Congregants lean slightly Republican, however, mainline clergy are overwhelmingly Democratic, creating significant tension within congregations and a growing clergy-laity political divide.

Historically Black Protestant Churches

Black Protestant churches comprise 5% of the US population (approximately 16 million), down from 6.9% in 2007. Major denominations include the National Baptist Convention, African Methodist Episcopal Church, and Church of God in Christ.

Regional Presence: Strongest in the South and urban areas nationwide.
Political Alignment: Most Democratic religious group (84%), though modest Republican growth is noted in recent years. Political priorities include racial justice, economic equality, voting rights, and criminal justice reform.

Jewish Americans

Jews comprise 2% of the US population (approximately 7.7 million). The community is concentrated in New York, California, and Florida, representing nearly half of all American Jews.

Political Alignment: Solidly Democratic (69% Democrat vs 29% Republican), though there is slight rightward movement in some states and younger populations.

Muslims

Muslims have grown from 0.6% to 1% of the population (approximately 3.5 million). The community is young and diverse, with significant South Asian, Middle Eastern, and African American populations.

Political Patterns: Lean heavily Democratic (66% vs 32% Republican), but Republican support has grown, especially among socially conservative Muslims.

Other Religious Minorities

Buddhists (1%), Hindus (1%), and other religions (2%) are small but growing segments. Hindus lean Democratic (62%), Buddhists are more divided. Concentrated in urban areas and western states.

Religiously Unaffiliated (“Nones”)

The most dramatic change has been the rise of religiously unaffiliated, growing from 16% in 2007 to 30% in 2024. Includes atheists (5%), agnostics (6%), and “nothing in particular” (19%).

Demographics: Younger, more educated, concentrated in the West and Northeast.
Political Impact: Overwhelmingly Democratic (70% vs 27% Republican). Political priorities include church-state separation, LGBTQ rights, reproductive freedom, and climate action.

Deep Analysis: Evangelicals, Christian Nationalism, and Seven Mountains

The Evangelical Political Evolution

The past twenty years have witnessed evangelicals’ transformation from a significant Republican constituency to the party’s dominant force. This shift accelerated after 2008, as evangelicals reacted to Obama’s presidency, same-sex marriage, and perceived threats to religious liberty.

2005-2008: Younger evangelicals initially showed political diversity
2008-2012: Tea Party movement merged fiscal conservatism with evangelical concerns
2012-2016: Religious liberty battles solidified evangelical Republican identity
2016-2024: Trump presidency cemented relationship—policy victories in exchange for moral flexibility

White evangelicals now comprise just 14% of the population but wield disproportionate political influence, especially in swing states and primaries. The group is older, less educated, and increasingly culturally isolated.

Christian Nationalism: From Fringe to Mainstream

Christian nationalism, the belief that America is divinely ordained as a Christian nation whose laws should reflect biblical values, has moved from margin to center of conservative politics.

Pre-2010: Existed primarily in fringe movements
2010-2015: Tea Party era mainstreamed “taking back America” rhetoric
2015-2020: Trump candidacy activated Christian nationalist networks; 7 Mountains ideology spread
January 6, 2021: Christian nationalist symbols and rhetoric central to Capitol attack
2021-2024: Institutionalization through organizations and inclusion in Project 2025

30% of Americans qualify as Christian nationalism adherents or sympathizers, correlating strongly with Republican identification and beliefs about election fraud and anti-immigrant sentiment. Support is highest in the South and Midwest.

Seven Mountains Mandate

The Seven Mountains Mandate provides the theological framework for dominionist Christianity, calling believers to control seven spheres: religion, family, education, government, media, arts/entertainment, and business.

1975: Bill Bright, Loren Cunningham, and Francis Schaeffer independently receive “revelation” about seven spheres
2000-2013: Lance Wallnau popularizes concept, publishes “Invading Babylon”
2013-present: Spreads through New Apostolic Reformation churches

Political implementation includes school choice, opposition to “CRT,” book bans, and explicitly Christian candidates in government. Notable political figures among adherents include Mike Johnson and Paula White.

Regional Variations

The South: Evangelical Stronghold

Remains America's most religious region. Evangelical dominance shapes politics. Black Protestants provide Democratic counterweight in urban areas and the Black Belt.

The Northeast: Catholic Decline, Secular Rise

Rapid secularization. Only 26% “very religious.” Catholics dropped from 45% to 30%, nones rose to 28%, correlates with consistent Democratic voting.

The Midwest: Contested Transition

Mainline Protestant decline opened space for evangelical growth and secularization. Urban-rural religious divides affect purple-state politics.

The West: Secular Frontier

Highest percentage of nones (35%) and lowest religious attendance. Mormon and Hispanic Catholic pockets within secular region.

Impact on Contemporary Politics

Religious polarization has become self-reinforcing, with churches functioning as political echo chambers as people self-select into politically compatible congregations. Key findings in the 2024 election: White Christian support powered Trump's victory, religious attendance correlated most strongly with Republican voting, and Christian nationalist rhetoric reshaped immigration and governance policy.

Conclusion

America's religious landscape has transformed dramatically over twenty years, with profound political implications. The decline of Christianity, rise of nones, and polarization along religious lines have created two Americas increasingly divided by faith and values. Christian nationalism's mainstream emergence and Seven Mountains theology pose challenges to pluralistic democracy. These dynamics will intensify as generational shifts continue.

Demographics and Political Tables

Religious Group	2007%	2014%	2024%	Republican (%)	Democrat (%)	Weekly Attend (%)	Median Age
Evangelical Protestant	26.3	25.4	23.0	70	22	64	49
Catholic	23.9	20.8	19.0	49	44	39	49
Mainline Protestant	18.1	14.7	11.0	51	41	33	55
Historically Black Protestant	6.9	6.5	5.0	11	84	59	51
Mormon (LDS)	1.7	1.6	2.0	73	23	77	48
Orthodox Christian	0.6	0.5	1.0	45	45	48	54
Jewish	1.7	1.9	2.0	29	69	27	48
Muslim	0.6	0.9	1.0	32	66	61	33
Buddhist	0.7	0.7	1.0	35	55	25	36
Hindu	0.4	0.7	1.0	38	62	45	36
Atheist	1.6	3.1	5.0	15	82	5	34
Agnostic	2.4	4.0	6.0	20	76	11	34
Nothing in Particular	12.1	15.8	19.0	26	62	7	36
Other Religions	2.0	2.4	2.0	35	55	35	40

Charts

References

ReligionPolitics

Don Bradford