Lodi Eye

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The State of Global Oil Reserves
Energy Don Bradford Energy Don Bradford

The State of Global Oil Reserves

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026 and the broader Middle East conflict followed, the world's oil-buffer infrastructure — the salt caverns, the harbor tanks, the bonded floating storage off Asian ports — stopped being a back-of-the-textbook curiosity and became the thing standing between functioning economies and rationing. This report inventories that buffer as of mid-May 2026 across four jurisdictions: the United States, California (which sits inside the United States but is functionally an island for fuel), Europe, and Asia.

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Lodi's Fuel Tax Is Shrinking. Can EVs Replace It?
Lodi Don Bradford Lodi Don Bradford

Lodi's Fuel Tax Is Shrinking. Can EVs Replace It?

Three new fuel retail projects are moving through approvals in the Lodi region. One — the Maverik station being annexed at Kettleman Lane and Beckman Road — will pay into Lodi's General Fund. Two — the Dhanda project at Highway 99 and Liberty Road in unincorporated Collierville, and the Lockeford ExtraMile at Highway 12 and Highway 88 — will not. Near-term, the Maverik adds roughly $280,000 annually to Lodi's books; the two unincorporated projects migrate approximately $340,000 annually from Lodi's tax base to San Joaquin County's as Lodi residents and pass-through traffic fuel up outside the city limits.

But the larger story is structural. California's Advanced Clean Cars II rule phases out new gasoline vehicle sales by 2035; Lodi's own EV Master Plan projects the city's zero-emission fleet will grow from 1,221 vehicles at the end of 2023 to more than 24,000 by 2035. Sustained California retail gasoline prices at $5.88 per gallon and rising accelerate the transition further. Meanwhile, Lodi Electric Utility's existing 10 percent payment-in-lieu-of-taxes transfer — approximately $7 million annually to the General Fund — provides a partial offsetting mechanism that is not widely understood, and whose optimization has not been publicly discussed. This analysis examines the near-term fiscal picture, the structural decline, and the replacement revenue and EV-monetization strategies Lodi can learn from peer California municipal utilities.

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The Fuel Tax on Lodi
Lodi Don Bradford Lodi Don Bradford

The Fuel Tax on Lodi

Lodi's economy depends on three streams of workers — an estimated 2,000 to 4,000 Bay Area commuters whose professional wages fuel local spending, thousands more commuting to Stockton and Sacramento, and the majority who live and work locally. With no BART, no light rail, and no direct commuter rail, every household's budget is priced per gallon. This analysis maps the tipping points at which elevated fuel prices trigger permanent changes: commuters pivoting from Lodi homeownership to renting near transit hubs, families cutting the discretionary spending that sustains local businesses, and the compounding revenue impact on a city already facing a $4.8 million structural deficit.

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California Fuel Blends: Time for a Change?
California Don Bradford California Don Bradford

California Fuel Blends: Time for a Change?

California's boutique gasoline blend—CARBOB—was designed decades ago to fight the state's severe smog crisis, and it worked. But the system built around that fuel is now breaking down. Two major refinery closures have eliminated 20% of the state's refining capacity in under a year. Prices at the pump have surged past $5.34 per gallon while neighboring states pay $1.00 to $1.80 less for gasoline refined from the same crude oil. Analysts warn of $7–8 gas by summer. This report examines how California got here, why the current system is failing, and evaluates four alternatives—from modest tweaks to a fundamental rethinking of the state's fuel policy.

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California Fuel Price Projections & Analysis — 2026
California Don Bradford California Don Bradford

California Fuel Price Projections & Analysis — 2026

California faces an unprecedented convergence of pressures on fuel prices in 2026: two major refinery closures removing 18–21% of in-state refining capacity, escalating regulatory costs from CARB's Cap-and-Invest and LCFS programs, and the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict that has driven crude oil above $110 per barrel. The state's average regular gasoline price stood at $5.16 as of March 8, 2026 — already $1.66 above the national average — and projections range from roughly $5.50 to $8.44 per gallon by late 2026.

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Chevron El Segundo Refinery Fire
Economy Don Bradford Economy Don Bradford

Chevron El Segundo Refinery Fire

On Thursday, October 2, 2025, a massive explosion and fire erupted at the Chevron El Segundo refinery in Los Angeles County at approximately 9:30 PM PDT. The blast produced 300-foot flames visible for miles across the South Bay, with witnesses reporting what felt like a small earthquake. This report explores the potential impact of the fire on California’s already stressed refineries and fuel production.

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Fuel Price Trends for Lodi - August 2025
Economy Don Bradford Economy Don Bradford

Fuel Price Trends for Lodi - August 2025

As of August 2025, the Stockton-Lodi metropolitan area averages $4.38 per gallon for regular gasoline and $5.22 per gallon for diesel. The bottom line is that diesel prices are showing a clear upward trend, while gasoline prices are trending downward. Gasoline prices have a direct impact on consumers, while diesel prices affect agriculture, industry, and transportation, which in turn drives up prices on groceries and other consumer products.

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California Refinery Closures - More Bad News…
California Don Bradford California Don Bradford

California Refinery Closures - More Bad News…

The impending closures of California's Phillips 66 Los Angeles and Valero Benicia refineries threaten to create a daily gasoline shortfall exceeding 6 million gallons — and cut 45% of Northern California’s asphalt production. Arizona and Nevada will also feel the pinch.

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California refineries, imported crude oil and refined fuels.
Fuel Don Bradford Fuel Don Bradford

California refineries, imported crude oil and refined fuels.

California's refinery landscape is poised for significant change over the next year, with major capacity reductions expected by 2026. This report examines the current refining capacity in California and analyzes the projected changes due to announced refinery closures, their causes, and potential implications for the state's fuel supply and prices.

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California Fuel Blends: What and Why?
Fuel Don Bradford Fuel Don Bradford

California Fuel Blends: What and Why?

California’s unique fuel blends, particularly California Reformulated Gasoline (CaRFG), are a direct response to the state’s longstanding air quality challenges and strict environmental regulations.

California, like the rest of the U.S., requires different gasoline formulations for summer and winter to address both environmental and engine performance needs. The differences are especially pronounced in California due to its stricter air quality standards.

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