US Involvement in Venezuela

International

Oct 10

Strategic Interests, Drug Trafficking, and Military Action

Main takeaway: The United States’ recent escalation against Venezuela blends drug-war justifications with geopolitical and energy interests. Data shows Venezuela’s direct role in US-bound drugs is minimal compared to Mexico, while sanctions and selective licensing underscore oil and great-power competition considerations.

Recent US Military and Political Involvement

The Trump administration has dramatically escalated US involvement in Venezuela through unprecedented military action and aggressive diplomatic pressure. In September and October 2025, the US military conducted at least four strikes against vessels allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuelan waters, killing dozens of people. These strikes, conducted without Coast Guard involvement and relying solely on the Navy, represent a significant departure from traditional drug interdiction operations.

President Trump declared in October 2025 that the United States is engaged in a "non-international armed conflict" with drug cartels operating in the Caribbean, designating them as unlawful combatants. This classification places drug trafficking organizations in the same legal framework as terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and ISIS, enabling military action without congressional authorization.

The administration has deployed significant military assets to the region, including a fleet of naval warships carrying more than 4,500 sailors and Marines, along with F-35 fighter jets positioned in Puerto Rico. Trump has also threatened to expand operations to Venezuelan territory, stating that cartels would need to start using land routes since maritime trafficking was being disrupted.

Strategic Rationale Behind US Actions

The Narrative of Drug Threat

The Trump administration justifies its aggressive stance by claiming Venezuela is flooding the US with cocaine and that President Nicolás Maduro leads the "Cartel de los Soles" (Cartel of the Suns), which allegedly traffics massive amounts of drugs. The administration has:

Doubled the bounty on Maduro to $50 million
Designated both Cartel de los Soles and Tren de Aragua as Foreign Terrorist Organizations
Claimed these groups pose an existential threat to American lives

Political and Geopolitical Objectives

Beyond drugs, the US approach reflects broader strategic goals:

Regime change pressure: Continuing efforts to remove Maduro from power and recognize opposition leader Edmundo González
Regional influence: Countering the presence of Russia, China, and Iran in Venezuela
Migration control: Using military and economic pressure to force Venezuela to accept deportations

US Economic and Strategic Interests

Oil Resources

Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, making it strategically vital for US energy security:

Heavy crude dependency: US Gulf Coast refineries are specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude, which has been in short supply
CITGO ownership: Venezuela's PDVSA owns CITGO, the 8th largest refiner in the US with over 800,000 barrels per day capacity
Market disruption: Venezuelan oil previously accounted for up to 16% of Gulf Coast oil imports before sanctions

Strategic Competition

The sanctions inadvertently strengthened the influence of strategic competitors:

China, Russia, and Iran have filled the vacuum in Venezuela's energy sector
These countries now control significant portions of Venezuelan oil production and exports
US companies like Chevron maintain precarious operations through special licenses

Economic Leverage

The Trump administration has used oil sanctions as leverage, repeatedly granting and revoking Chevron's operating licenses based on political objectives. This approach aims to:

Maintain US influence in Venezuela's energy sector
Prevent complete Chinese/Russian domination
Use energy access as a bargaining chip for political concessions

Basis for Terrorist Designation Claims

Evidence Supporting Designation

The Trump administration's terrorist designation of Venezuelan groups rests on several documented factors:

High-level corruption: Multiple Venezuelan officials, including Hugo Carvajal, Tareck El Aissami, and Diosdado Cabello, have been indicted or convicted on drug trafficking charges
The Narcosobrinos incident: Maduro's nephews were convicted in 2016 for attempting to traffic 800kg of cocaine to New York using Venezuelan military resources and diplomatic passports
Support for armed groups: Venezuelan officials have allegedly provided weapons and protection to the FARC and other guerrilla organizations
State involvement: The Treasury Department claims Cartel de los Soles provides material support to groups like Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel

Challenges to the Narrative

However, experts and data challenge key aspects of these claims:

Not a traditional cartel: Researchers describe Cartel de los Soles as loose networks of corruption rather than a structured drug cartel
Limited trafficking role: Venezuela serves primarily as a transit country, not a major producer
Exaggerated volume: While Venezuela handles significant cocaine transit (approximately 24% of global production), its direct role in US-bound drugs is relatively minor

Venezuela's Actual Ranking in Drug Trafficking to the US

Based on comprehensive analysis of DEA, UN, and seizure data, Venezuela's role in US drug trafficking is significantly overstated.

Data note: Venezuela ranks approximately #5 among countries involved in drug trafficking to the US, accounting for less than 1% of the US drug market.

Mexico: 90% of US drug market - Primary source of fentanyl, methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine transit
Colombia: 5% - World's largest cocaine producer
China: 2% - Fentanyl precursor chemicals
Venezuela: 0.8% - Cocaine transit only
Other countries: Combined 2.2%

Actual Drug Flow Statistics:

Global cocaine transit through Venezuela: ~24% (639 tons annually)
Venezuelan cocaine reaching the US: Only 10-15 tons annually (less than 1% of US cocaine)
Primary destination of Venezuelan-transited drugs: Europe (50%), not the United States

Drug Types and Transport Mechanisms

Primary Drugs by Source Country

From Mexico:

Fentanyl (95% of US supply)
Methamphetamine (85% of US supply)
Heroin (almost 100% of US supply)
Cocaine (transit from Colombia)

From Colombia:

Cocaine (90% of US cocaine originates here)
Takes Pacific route through Central America and Mexico

From China:

Fentanyl precursor chemicals
Previously finished fentanyl (until 2019 restrictions)

From Venezuela:

Cocaine (transit only, not production)
Minimal direct shipments to US

Smuggling Methods and Routes

Primary Methods:

Land Border Crossings (92% of fentanyl, 65% of cocaine) Hidden in passenger vehicles at ports of entry; commercial cargo trucks; primarily smuggled by US citizens (81% of arrests)
Maritime Routes (8-10% of cocaine) Cargo ships (containers, engine rooms, fuel tanks); go-fast boats via Caribbean to Florida; narco-submarines in Eastern Pacific; fishing vessels masked as legitimate trips
Underground Infrastructure Tunnels with railways, electricity, ventilation; drainage systems; natural caverns
Air Routes Small aircraft from Venezuela/Colombia to Central America; ultralights; drones for small payloads; commercial flights (body carry/luggage)
Novel Methods Catapults/cannons; carrier pigeons for micro-shipments; dissolution in liquids/materials for later extraction

Key Smuggling Facts

US citizens are the primary smugglers: 81% of fentanyl smuggling arrests at borders involve US citizens, not migrants
Ports of entry dominate: 92% of fentanyl seizures occur at official border crossings, not remote areas
Volume efficiency: Fentanyl's potency means tiny amounts have huge value
Caribbean routes declining: Only 8% of US-bound cocaine now uses Caribbean routes due to interdiction

Conclusions

The Trump administration's military escalation against Venezuela represents a complex fusion of drug war rhetoric, geopolitical competition, and energy interests. While Venezuela does play a role in global drug trafficking, the data clearly shows:

Venezuela's drug trafficking impact on the US is minimal — less than 1% of the US drug market, ranking far behind Mexico (90%) and Colombia (5%)
The terrorist designation has some factual basis regarding corruption and state involvement in trafficking, but the scale and direct threat to the US are significantly exaggerated
US strategic interests in Venezuelan oil appear to be a major underlying factor, with sanctions policy repeatedly adjusted based on US refinery needs rather than drug trafficking concerns
Mexico, not Venezuela, is the overwhelming source of deadly drugs entering the US, particularly fentanyl and methamphetamine
Military action against maritime trafficking from Venezuela addresses less than 1% of drugs entering the US, raising questions about proportionality and true objectives

The focus on Venezuela appears to serve multiple strategic purposes beyond drug interdiction, including pressuring regime change, countering rival powers' influence, and maintaining access to critical heavy crude oil supplies for US refineries. The drug war narrative provides political and legal justification for military action that might otherwise require congressional approval.

References

DrugsUS Military

Don Bradford