2025 Lodi Crush Report: Preliminary Numbers Are In
2025 Lodi Crush Report: Forecast vs. Reality
Preliminary USDA/CDFA Grape Crush Report Analysis — District 11 Deep Dive • Published March 14, 2026
This article updates our August 2025 Crush Forecast and Lodi Winegrowing Trends 2020–2024 with actual data from the USDA/CDFA Preliminary Grape Crush Report and harvest-season reporting from the Wine Institute and Lodi winemakers.
California Statewide: Another Down Year
The 2025 statewide crush of 2,759,202 tons was down 6.2% from 2024’s already-depressed 2,942,673 tons—itself the lightest crop since 2004. The industry has now shed nearly 39% of volume from the 2018 peak of 4,506,000 tons.
| Type | 2025 Tons | 2024 Tons | Change | Avg $/Ton 2025 | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Wine | 1,316,716 | 1,401,048 | -6.0% | $707.12 | -0.9% |
| Red Wine | 1,306,727 | 1,464,532 | -10.8% | $1,280.63 | -4.4% |
| Raisin | 11,541 | 23,630 | -51.2% | $312.75 | +5.5% |
| Table | 124,218 | 53,463 | +132.3% | $201.00 | +33.4% |
| All Types | 2,759,202 | 2,942,673 | -6.2% | $978.60 | -3.8% |
Red wine varieties took the harder hit, declining 10.8% versus 6.0% for whites. The statewide average price fell 3.8% to $978.60/ton. Every premium coastal district saw price declines: Napa dropped 2.6% to $6,767.53/ton, Sonoma fell 5.7% to $2,761.37. For concentrate production, 337,705 tons (12.2% of total crush) were diverted—a significant share that underscores the ongoing bulk oversupply.
California Crush by Type (2016–2025)
District 11 (Lodi): How the Forecast Played Out
In August 2025, Lodi411 projected three scenarios for Lodi’s crush. Here’s what actually happened:
| Scenario | Projected Tons | Actual 2025 Tons | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative (-15%) | 501,964 | — | — |
| Moderate (+5%) | 620,073 | 537,752 | -13.3% |
| Strong Recovery | 725,566 | — | — |
| Actual Result | — | 537,752 | -8.9% vs 2024 |
The actual crush of 537,752 tons landed between our conservative and moderate scenarios—closer to conservative. Instead of the modest recovery we projected, Lodi shed another 52,794 tons from 2024.
District 11 Crush Trajectory (2020–2025)
| Year | D11 Total Tons | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 689,000 | — |
| 2021 | 782,328 | +13.6% |
| 2022 | 747,391 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 782,000 | +4.6% |
| 2024 | 590,546 | -24.5% |
| 2025 | 537,752 | -8.9% |
Lodi has lost 31.3% of its crush volume since the 2023 peak—equivalent to roughly 244,000 tons vanishing in just two years. The region’s share of the statewide crush slipped to 19.5%, down from its historical 20.5% average.
Where Our Forecast Went Wrong
Three factors drove the miss:
- Zinfandel collapsed far beyond projections — actual: 51,376 tons vs. our conservative estimate of 70,275 (a 26.9% miss even on the pessimistic end)
- Chardonnay underperformed — actual: 86,006 tons vs. conservative forecast of 90,354
- Continued vineyard removals and unharvested acres exceeded expectations — growers like Jaclyn Stokes reported only 60% of fruit harvested; Todd Maley of Maley Vineyards left “almost half” of his crop unpicked—not due to quality, but due to lack of buyers
The 2025 Growing Season: A Cool Vintage Lodi Didn’t Expect
Our August forecast projected elevated Brix levels from anticipated warmth. The season delivered the opposite—and winemakers say it was a gift.
Brix: What We Projected vs. What Happened
Statewide Brix fell across every category compared to 2024:
| Type | 2025 Brix | 2024 Brix | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Varieties | 22.8° | 23.5° | -0.7° |
| Red Wine | 24.0° | 24.8° | -0.8° |
| White Wine | 22.0° | 22.2° | -0.2° |
Our varietal-level projections missed significantly:
| Varietal | Projected Brix | Actual Brix | Difference | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabernet Sauvignon | 23.7° | 24.7° | +1.0° | Higher than projected |
| Chardonnay | 25.1° | 23.3° | -1.8° | Well below |
| Zinfandel | 26.1° | 22.1° | -4.0° | Far below |
| Merlot | 25.0° | 24.5° | -0.5° | Slightly below |
| Pinot Noir | 25.0° | 24.2° | -0.8° | Below |
| Sauvignon Blanc | 23.4° | 21.6° | -1.8° | Well below |
| Petite Sirah | 26.8° | 24.7° | -2.1° | Well below |
The Zinfandel Brix miss of -4.0° is remarkable. At 22.1° average, much of the Zin crop came in below the ideal 24.0–28.0° range. Cabernet Sauvignon was the one varietal that exceeded projections.
The Weather Story: Cool, Mild, and Spike-Free
The Wine Institute classified Lodi’s 2025 growing season as “cooler than normal” with average rainfall and—critically—no wildfire impacts. The season unfolded in distinct phases:
Warm spring, early start. Good bud break and flowering set the stage, with vines progressing normally. There was little disease pressure and normal development from bud break through flowering.
The Cool July. Todd Maley of Maley Vineyards pinpointed the turning point: “The cool month of July (a lot of 85-degree days) resulted in higher acidity and balanced wines. This was especially so with Zinfandel.” An 85-degree July day in Lodi is notably mild for a region that routinely sees triple digits. The typical Zin problems—redberry dilution and rot—were “non-existent” in 2025.
No heat spikes. Susan Tipton of Acquiesce Winery called it “a comparatively easy year without any significant heat spikes during harvest,” noting that the cooler weather resulted in unusually long fermentations—“longer than I can remember in the past 15 years.” Statewide, Paso Robles experienced fewer than eight days over 100°F; Lodi followed a similar pattern.
Timing disruptions. Ali Colarossi of Estate Crush noted: “At one point we had already pressed out Cabernet and were still taking in Chardonnay fruit”—the mild weather disrupted traditional ripening order.
Late-season rain. Mid-October rains added complexity. Ben Kolber of KG Vineyard Management said “things changed abruptly toward the end, cutting harvest short and leaving many tons still on the vine”—though market conditions, not weather, were the primary reason fruit was left unharvested.
Lower Brix = Better Quality
Lodi winemakers were nearly unanimous: the lower Brix produced superior wine.
Varietal Forecast vs. Actual: The Lodi Scorecard
| Varietal | Conservative | Moderate | Actual D11 Tons | Variance vs. Moderate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabernet Sauvignon | 130,511 | 161,219 | 132,089 | -18.1% |
| Chardonnay | 90,354 | 111,613 | 86,006 | -22.9% |
| Zinfandel | 70,275 | 86,810 | 51,376 | -40.8% |
| Pinot Gris | — | — | 59,522 | N/A |
| Sauvignon Blanc | — | — | 38,623 | N/A |
| Pinot Noir | — | — | 35,764 | N/A |
| Merlot | — | — | 32,731 | N/A |
| Petite Sirah | — | — | 26,068 | N/A |
Zinfandel is the biggest story. The 40.8% miss against our moderate forecast—and 26.9% miss against even our worst-case scenario—reflects the accelerating removal of Zin acreage flagged in our Winegrowing Trends analysis. Statewide, Zinfandel fell from 200,998 to 151,637 tons (-24.5%), a loss of nearly 50,000 tons. Lodi, which produces a third of California’s Zinfandel, is ground zero for this decline.
District 11 Top Varietals — 2025 Actual Tons
Varietals Growing and Shrinking: Statewide
Winners
| Varietal | 2024 Tons | 2025 Tons | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Table Grapes (Total) | 53,463 | 124,218 | +132.3% |
| Rubired | 150,607 | 176,251 | +17.0% |
| Sauvignon Blanc | 138,665 | 160,962 | +16.1% |
| Pinot Gris | 190,595 | 198,619 | +4.2% |
| Barbera | 28,717 | 30,224 | +5.3% |
| Cotton Candy (table) | 135 | 2,889 | +2,041% |
Rubired’s 17% surge is counterintuitive—the bulk blending grape gained 25,644 tons even as total wine crush fell, reflecting strong demand for concentrate and color additives. Sauvignon Blanc (+16.1%) is the premium bright spot.
Losers
| Varietal | 2024 Tons | 2025 Tons | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arinarnoa | 861 | 9 | -99.0% |
| Marsanne | 1,234 | 290 | -76.5% |
| Alicante Bouschet | 2,896 | 1,009 | -65.2% |
| Raisin Grapes (Total) | 23,630 | 11,541 | -51.2% |
| Tannat | 5,176 | 2,842 | -45.1% |
| Teroldego | 12,579 | 7,789 | -38.1% |
| Petit Verdot | 22,288 | 14,425 | -35.3% |
| Malbec | 24,454 | 16,112 | -34.1% |
| Syrah | 54,103 | 39,301 | -27.4% |
| Zinfandel | 200,998 | 151,637 | -24.5% |
| Petite Sirah | 67,634 | 51,867 | -23.4% |
| Merlot | 130,405 | 104,286 | -20.0% |
| French Colombard | 250,330 | 204,375 | -18.3% |
| Pinot Noir | 218,022 | 189,842 | -12.9% |
The Teroldego reversal is notable for Lodi. Our 2020–2024 trends piece flagged it as the “fastest-growing new red” with +700–800% growth. The 2025 data shows a statewide pullback of 38.1%, suggesting the speculative planting surge may have overshot demand.
Statewide Varietal Changes — Biggest Movers (2024 vs. 2025)
The Table Grape Tsunami
The single most dramatic number in the 2025 report: table grapes crushed for wine surged 132.3%, from 53,463 to 124,218 tons. This is not a modest shift—it’s a structural disruption.
What’s Happening
Table grape growers, facing oversupply and weak fresh-market returns, are diverting enormous volumes to wine processors as a last-resort outlet. At $201/ton average, these grapes barely cover harvest costs, but some revenue is better than leaving fruit on the vine.
Where the Table Grapes Are Coming From
| District | 2025 Table Tons | Share of State |
|---|---|---|
| D14 – Kings/Kern | 114,324 | 92.0% |
| D11 – Lodi | 9,353 | 7.5% |
| D13 – Fresno/Madera | 540 | 0.4% |
| State Total | 124,218 | 100% |
The 9,353 tons showing up in District 11 is a new phenomenon for Lodi—these are not traditional crush varieties. The D11 table crush includes Scarlet (2,070 tons), Sugraone (1,729 tons), Autumn King (1,148 tons), Ivory (813 tons), and 3,341 tons of “Other Table” varieties.
Standout Table Grape Surges
| Variety | 2024 Tons | 2025 Tons | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton Candy | 135 | 2,889 | +2,041% |
| Other Table | 27,010 | 81,369 | +201% |
| Princess | 5 | 1,724 | +35,396% |
| Holiday | 0 | 1,219 | NEW |
| Autumn Royal | 615 | 2,495 | +306% |
| Emerald Seedless | 1,160 | 3,429 | +196% |
| Sugraone | 37 | 1,729 | +4,574% |
Cotton Candy grapes at the crush pad—destined for concentrate rather than Costco clamshells—is a powerful symbol of the fresh grape market’s distress.
Price Per Ton: The Geography of Value
The 2025 data reinforces California’s extreme price stratification. A ton of grapes from Napa commands 23 times the price of fruit from the southern Central Valley.
Average Price Per Ton by District (2025)
| District | Region | 2025 $/Ton |
|---|---|---|
| D4 | Napa | $6,767.53 |
| D3 | Sonoma/Marin | $2,761.37 |
| D16 | Orange/Riverside/SD | $2,070.97 |
| D8 | SLO/Santa Barbara | $1,752.89 |
| D10 | Sierra Foothills | $1,674.00 |
| D1 | Mendocino | $1,673.40 |
| D7 | Monterey/San Benito | $1,330.58 |
| D2 | Lake | $1,165.52 |
| D9 | Sacramento North | $757.01 |
| D11 | Lodi | $580.12 |
| D12 | Stanislaus/Merced | $483.97 |
| D13 | Fresno/Madera | $336.08 |
| D14 | Kings/Kern | $292.61 |
Lodi Varietal Pricing
| Varietal | Lodi (D11) Est. $/Ton | Napa (D4) $/Ton | State Average $/Ton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabernet Sauvignon | ~$643 | ~$8,933 | $2,127.33 |
| Chardonnay | ~$500–600 | ~$3,200 | $1,012.01 |
| Zinfandel | ~$600–700 | ~$4,765 | $693.10 |
| Petite Sirah | ~$800–1,000 | ~$4,581 | $1,006.24 |
Some Napa Cab lots were purchased at $42,875/ton—more than 66 times the average Lodi Cab price. Lodi Cab base prices ranged from as low as $50/ton (distress pricing) up to ~$6,000 for small specialty lots.
The Seven Most Surprising Numbers
- Durif at $9,100/ton — Only 0.1 ton purchased, but the highest per-ton price for any single transaction in the entire report
- Arinarnoa: 861 → 9 tons (-99%) — This French experimental cross essentially vanished from California in a single year
- Cotton Candy grapes up 2,041% — The novelty table variety’s diversion to crush is a canary in the coal mine for fresh grape markets
- Zinfandel lost 49,361 tons — The single largest tonnage drop of any varietal, devastating for Lodi’s identity
- Rubired surged 17% while everything else fell — Bulk blending is eating premium wine’s lunch
- Napa Cab at $42,875/ton vs. Lodi Cab at ~$50/ton — An 857:1 price ratio within the same state for the same grape
- Holiday grapes: 0 → 1,219 tons — A brand-new table variety appeared with over a thousand tons, showing how quickly fresh-market diversion is accelerating
What This Means for Lodi Wineries
The crush report doesn’t name individual operations, but the data reveals structural implications for Lodi’s wine community:
Large Commercial Operations
Constellation/Woodbridge, Delicato/DPSG, Trinchero: These operations dominate District 11 purchasing. Cabernet Sauvignon (132,089 tons) and Chardonnay (86,006 tons) remain the foundation of their value-tier production. At $580–650/ton average pricing, raw material costs are favorable, but declining volumes suggest contracted acreage is shrinking as growers pull uneconomic blocks.
Zinfandel Specialists
Michael David Winery, Jessie’s Grove, Klinker Brick, McCay Cellars, m2 Wines, Harney Lane: The 24.5% statewide Zin decline and accelerating old-vine removal is now reflected in hard crush numbers. Zin prices held essentially flat at $693.10/ton despite a 49,000-ton supply drop—suggesting the market is finding equilibrium at much lower volume. Heritage old-vine Zinfandel is becoming scarcer by the year. The silver lining: the cool July eliminated redberry and rot issues, and winemakers report the 2025 Zin is showing excellent color and concentration.
Petite Sirah Producers
Lodi crushed 26,068 tons of Petite Sirah—over half the state total of 51,867. This is a position of strength, but statewide tonnage fell 23.4% and prices dipped from $1,052 to $1,006/ton.
Sauvignon Blanc as Bright Spot
District 11 crushed 38,623 tons of Sauvignon Blanc from a varietal that grew 16.1% statewide. Han Han of Kautz/Ironstone confirmed the quality case: white varietals in 2025 are “well-balanced in acidity and ripeness with minimal acid adjustments.”
Table Grape Diversion Warning
The 9,353 tons of table grapes crushed in District 11 at $219/ton represents distress-level pricing. If this volume grows in future years, it could pressure wine grape pricing at the bottom of the market.
The 2025 Paradox: Great Wine, Terrible Market
The cruelest feature of the 2025 vintage is the disconnect between quality and economics. Every Lodi winemaker interviewed describes exceptional fruit quality—lower alcohol, brighter acidity, darker color, cleaner fermentations. Dwight Busalacchi of Mio Vigneto is already experimenting with the lower-alcohol profile as a deliberate strategy for reaching younger consumers who prefer European-style elegance over California power.
But the market couldn’t absorb it. National wine consumption continues its multi-year decline. Growers left tens of thousands of tons on the vine—not because of weather or disease, but because there were no buyers. As Todd Maley put it, the 2025 vintage produced “wonderful wines”—from grapes that, in many cases, nobody wanted to buy.
Updated Outlook: 2026 and Beyond
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Projection | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| D11 Total Crush | 537,752 tons | 500,000–550,000 | Continued removals offset by stable demand |
| Zinfandel D11 | 51,376 tons | 40,000–48,000 | Removal acceleration continues |
| Cab Sauvignon D11 | 132,089 tons | 125,000–135,000 | Relatively stable |
| Avg Price D11 | $580.12 | $560–600 | Flat to slightly declining |
| Table Grapes D11 | 9,353 tons | 10,000–15,000 | Likely increasing |
The key variables for 2026:
- Vineyard removals: California reportedly pulled 40,000+ acres of vines in 2025, with Lodi growers participating disproportionately
- Wine demand: National consumption continues its multi-year decline; younger consumers trending toward spirits, RTDs, and non-alcoholic options
- Water and input costs: Ongoing cost pressures make marginal blocks uneconomic at current grape prices
- The Rubired/concentrate economy: Growth of bulk blending grapes suggests a shift toward lower-cost, higher-volume production—a structural challenge for Lodi’s premium ambitions
- The quality argument: If the 2025 wines live up to winemaker expectations, Lodi has a compelling story—world-class fruit at accessible prices, in a lower-alcohol style that matches modern consumer preferences
The data is clear: Lodi is in a period of painful but perhaps necessary right-sizing. The region’s remarkable varietal diversity (136+ cultivars), its Sauvignon Blanc and Petite Sirah strength, and its irreplaceable role as the source of 20% of California’s wine grapes ensure its relevance. But the Lodi of 2026 is a fundamentally different place than the Lodi of 2021, and the crush report makes that transformation undeniable.
References & Sources
- USDA/CDFA Preliminary 2025 California Grape Crush Report — Released March 13, 2026
- Wine Institute — California 2025 Harvest Report — December 2025
- Stocktonia — “Tough wine market underscores epic vintage” (Mark Highfill) — November 29, 2025
- Lodi411 — Lodi and District 11 2025 Crush Forecast — August 2025
- Lodi411 — Lodi Winegrowing Trends 2020–2024 — August 2025
Questions or corrections? Contact info@lodi411.com