Lodi And District 11 2025 Crush Forecast
Market Recovery Amid Quality Excellence
The 2025 Lodi grape harvest is projected to deliver excellent quality with slightly higher tonnage than 2024 but continued market and supply challenges remain. Favorable weather forecasts point to mostly ideal sugar (Brix) levels across major varietals, though overall production will remain below long-term averages.
Historical Context and Market Volatility
Lodi’s crush tonnage has shown significant volatility over the past four years—a 24.5% drop in 2024 from 2023 following a rebound year and a fluctuating market. These swings result from weather and economic disruptions, inventory backlogs, and unharvested acres.
| Year | Total Tonnage | Year-over-Year % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 782,328 | – |
| 2022 | 747,391 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 782,000 | +4.6% |
| 2024 | 590,546 | -24.5% |
| Average (2021-2024) | 725,566 ± 79,236 | |
2025 Weather Analysis and Quality Projections
After a hot September start, a favorable cooling trend through late fall is predicted. These conditions allow most varietals to achieve or exceed ideal Brix levels, supporting balanced wines with good structure and flavor intensity.
| Varietal | Projected 2025 Brix | Ideal Range (°) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabernet Sauvignon | 23.7 | 24.0–26.5 | Below Ideal |
| Chardonnay | 25.1 | 21.0–24.0 | Above Ideal |
| Zinfandel | 26.1 | 24.0–28.0 | Within Ideal |
| Merlot | 25.0 | 23.0–25.5 | Within Ideal |
| Pinot Noir | 25.0 | 22.0–25.0 | At Upper Limit |
| Sauvignon Blanc | 23.4 | 20.0–23.0 | Above Ideal |
| Petite Sirah | 26.8 | 24.0–27.0 | Within Ideal |
2025 Crush Projections by Varietal and Disposition
Moderate recovery is the most probable scenario, with market demand stabilizing slightly but not yet matching long-term averages.
| Scenario | Total Tons | Cabernet Sauvignon | Chardonnay | Zinfandel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative (-15%) | 501,964 | 130,511 | 90,354 | 70,275 |
| Moderate (+5%) | 620,073 | 161,219 | 111,613 | 86,810 |
| Strong Recovery | 725,566 | 188,647 | 130,602 | 101,579 |
| Disposition | 2025 Projected Tons | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Major Commercial Wineries | 372,044 | 60% |
| Regional/Mid-tier Wineries | 124,015 | 20% |
| Premium/Estate Wineries | 93,011 | 15% |
| Spot Market | 31,004 | 5% |
Market Dynamics and Challenges
The supply-demand imbalance persists as vineyard removals and unharvested acreage limit the total crush. Wine demand remains below pre-2020 levels, and bulk supply outpaces market absorption. Growers are emphasizing quality on contracted vines and cutting inputs to uncommitted or underperforming blocks.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Forecast: Lodi should crush around 620,000 tons in 2025—up modestly from 2024 but still below the 4-year average. Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay will comprise the majority of the crush. Quality is expected to be excellent due to weather-aided Brix development, but some grapes may be above or below the optimal range, requiring careful winemaking. Market recovery is tentative; success hinges on demand returning to sustainable levels.
- Growers: Focus on contracted blocks, manage costs and plan for selective harvesting.
- Wineries: Target selectively for quality; ready capacity for compressed harvest if conditions drive simultaneous ripening.
References
- 2022 Grape Crush Report - Lodi Growers
- WineBusiness Analytics: Lodi Harvest
- 2025 Weather History in Lodi - WeatherSpark
- USDA-NASS Grape Crush Reports
- The meaning of brix and the start of Lodi's 2021 harvest
- Optimal Sugar and Acid Levels for Popular Wine Grape Varieties
- Lodi Wine Blog - Positive thoughts
- 2024 Grape Crush Report - Ciatti
- September - Lodi, CA - AccuWeather
- Lodi weather in October 2025 - Weather25
- California's 2025 Harvest Brings Hope
- Preliminary 2023 Winegrape Crush Report
- Early Report on 2024 Lodi Harvest
- California Farm Bureau Weather Report, 2025
- Lodi Wine Blog: 2025