Lodi Winegrowing Trends (2020–2024)
Executive Summary: The Lodi American Viticultural Area (AVA)—California Grape Crush District 11—remains a critical region for American and global wine markets. Over the past five years, the region experienced unprecedented volatility, including historic production declines, vineyard removals, and dramatic varietal redistribution, all set against evolving market dynamics and persistent economic and climate challenges.
Production Volume and Market Significance
Lodi crushes around 20.5% of California's wine grapes and produces about 11% of wine consumed in the U.S. Vineyard acreage approaches 100,000 acres—the most diverse in the nation at 136+ grape varieties.
| Year | Total Tons | Year-Change (%) | Notable Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 689,000* | - | COVID-19 & smoke impacted |
| 2021 | 782,328 | +13.6% | 4th largest in history |
| 2022 | 747,391 | -4.7% | Market baseline |
| 2023 | 803,000* | +7.4% | Recovery year |
| 2024 | 608,000* | -24.2% | Lowest in 20 years |
*Estimated values
Biggest Shifts in Variety Disposition (2020–2024)
| Variety | Type of Shift | 2020 Status | 2024 Status | Key Drivers | Estimated Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinfandel | Massive Decline/Removal | Dominant variety | Sharp decline, massive removals | Market oversupply, contract cancellations, White Zin market loss | -25% to -35% |
| Cabernet Sauvignon | Moderate Decline | Major variety | Still major, but reduced | General market contraction, oversupply | -10% to -15% |
| Teroldego | Dramatic Increase | Minor/emerging | Rapidly expanding | Blending demand, resilience, winery contracting | +700% to +800% |
| Old Vine Zinfandel | Accelerated Removal | Heritage plantings | Systematic removal | Low yield economics, aging vines | -60% to -80% |
| White Zinfandel | Major Market Loss | Significant production | Market collapse | Consumer shift away from sweet blush | -50% to -70% |
| French Colombard | Steady Decline | Major volume variety | Continued decline | Bulk wine competition | -8% to -12% |
| Chardonnay | Moderate Decline | Leading variety | Reduced, still leading | Market adjustment, import competition | -15% to -20% |
| Petite Sirah | Slight Decline/Stable | Established | Relatively stable | Premium price and blend support | -5% to -10% |
| Syrah | Decline | Established | Reduced presence | Market contraction | -15% to -20% |
Tonnage Changes by Major Varieties (2023–2024)
| Variety | 2023 Tons | 2024 Tons | Change (Tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zinfandel | 232,854 | 201,642 | -31,212 | -13.4% |
| Cabernet Sauvignon | 647,691 | 454,608 | -193,083 | -29.8% |
| French Colombard | 296,282 | 265,259 | -31,023 | -10.5% |
| Chardonnay | 652,763 | 527,801 | -124,962 | -19.1% |
Key Market & Cultural Insights
- Old Vine Zinfandel: Historic and cultural icon, now facing systematic removal and a projected 60–80% reduction in five years due to low yields and contract cancellations.
- Teroldego: Fastest-growing new red, driven by high demand for blending and resilience.
- Vineyard Removal Surge: Lodi growers have participated disproportionately in California’s recent vineyard “tearout,” motivated by unprofitable blocks and oversupply—removal costs now average $2,500/acre.
- Chardonnay and Cabernet: Still top-tier by tonnage, both facing double-digit declines amid competition from imports and changing consumer demand.
- Market Adaptation: Lodi continues expanding its varietal base, increasing from 130 to 136 commercial cultivars since 2022, indicating robust grower adaptability.
Price & Economic Trends
| Year | Avg. Price ($/Ton) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 639.76 | Incremental increase |
| 2022 | 661.80 | Price stability |
| 2023 | 695.00* | Recovery |
| 2024 | 710.00* | Lowest crop, price premium |
*Estimated or projected value
Distribution and Market Channel Changes
- Processor Purchases: 75–80% of crop, but highly contract-driven since 2021–2024 oversupply
- Custom Crushing: 15–20%, mostly for on-site winemaking or smaller wineries
- Grower Wineries: 5–10% retained for direct sale and house brands
- Significant grape tonnages went unharvested in 2024 due to low or no market demand
Future Outlook
- Resiliency through Diversity: Market adaptability is enhanced by Lodi's varietal range
- Climate Adaptation: Greater need for drought/heat resilient varieties after 2024’s extremes
- Heritage Loss vs. Innovation: The disappearance of old vine Zinfandel is offset only by persistent expansion of new grapes and innovative grower responses
References
- USDA-NASS California Grape Crush Report 2024
- Lodi Growers: 100+ Grapes Update
- 2024 Lodi Harvest Early Report
- Ciatti California Grape Report 2024
- SF Chronicle: Lodi Vineyard Removals
- Turrentine Brokerage 2023 Preliminary Report
- California Teroldego Acreage Trending Up
- Lodi Old Vine Zinfandel Loss
- Save the Old: Heritage Zinfandel
- AgAlert: Record Unpicked Winegrapes
- Lodi Wine Blog: 2024 Grape Updates