El Niño Returns: What a “Godzilla” Climate Event Could Mean for Northern California’s Water, Farms, and Fire Risk

Leading forecast models now put the odds of at least a moderate El Niño at roughly 98% by late summer, with an 80% chance it could reach “strong” status. Some models suggest this could rival the historic 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 events.

This special report examines what the emerging El Niño—combined with this winter’s record-warm conditions and troublingly low snowpack—could mean for our community across three critical areas: (1) flood risk and reservoir operations, (2) local agriculture and water supply, and (3) wildfire danger. Each section identifies specific risks, the areas most affected, and what Lodi residents should know.