US, Venezuela and BRICS

International

Jan 11

US Venezuela Intervention: Impact on BRICS and Global Order

Executive Summary

On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted Operation Absolute Resolve, a large-scale military strike on Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This unprecedented intervention—the largest US military operation in Latin America since the 1989 Panama invasion—has created immediate and significant ramifications for the BRICS bloc, its members' strategic interests, and the broader transition toward a multipolar international order.

Key Impacts:

Exposed fundamental divisions within BRICS regarding responses to US unilateralism
Threatened tens of billions in Chinese investments and loans in Venezuela
Forcibly reintegrated a major oil producer into dollar-denominated trade systems
Demonstrated absence of credible BRICS collective security mechanisms
Created credibility crisis for BRICS' de-dollarization initiatives
Challenged India's presidency of BRICS with unity management crisis

The Strategic Context: Venezuela and BRICS Alignment

Venezuela had emerged as a symbolic battleground in the competition between US-led Western hegemony and the BRICS-led challenge to dollar dominance. With the world's largest proven oil reserves—303 billion barrels—Venezuela had increasingly shifted its oil sales away from dollar-denominated transactions toward Chinese yuan, Russian rubles, and other alternative currencies.

Venezuela's BRICS Connection: Venezuela actively pursued closer integration with BRICS, seeking full membership in the bloc and positioning itself as a key ally in challenging US dollar hegemony. At the October 2024 BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Maduro advocated for "bolder steps" toward establishing a "new international financing system" independent of Western dominance, calling for a basket of currencies and alternative payment mechanisms.

This strategic pivot made Venezuela a living demonstration that countries could survive and function outside the dollar system despite US sanctions, serving as encouragement for other nations considering similar moves. The US intervention sends an unmistakable message to would-be challengers of dollar hegemony: departure from the dollar-based system may invite military consequences.

BRICS Member Responses: Unity Under Strain

China: Condemnation Tempered by Pragmatism

China issued swift and vocal condemnation of the US operation, calling it a "blatant use of force against a sovereign state" that seriously violated international law. However, Beijing's response has been carefully calibrated to avoid jeopardizing its broader relationship with the Trump administration.

Economic Interest	Magnitude	Impact of Intervention
Outstanding Loans	$10-20 billion	Repayment disrupted by production collapse
Sector Investments	$60+ billion	Threatened by US control and sanctions
Oil Shipments	610,000 bbl/day	Supply disrupted by naval blockade
Joint Ventures	Multiple projects	Operations suspended or transferred to US firms

Despite the rhetorical condemnation, Chinese officials have begun damage control assessments, with some analysts suggesting Beijing may seek to minimize losses by negotiating with US-aligned authorities or forming partnerships with Western firms to salvage investments. This pragmatic pivot reflects China's recognition that while Venezuela is symbolically important, it represents only 2-4% of its oil imports and can be replaced through alternative suppliers.

Russia: Muted Response Amid Ukraine Calculations

Russia's reaction has been notably restrained given its longstanding strategic partnership with Venezuela. While the Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the operation as "an act of armed aggression," President Vladimir Putin himself remained conspicuously silent. This measured response stems from Moscow's overriding priority: securing favorable terms in Ukraine peace negotiations with the Trump administration.

Russia's Strategic Calculus

Russia reportedly rebuffed Maduro's request for direct military assistance in fall 2025 and evacuated diplomats' families from Venezuela before the US operation, suggesting Moscow may have received advance warning or acquiesced to US action in exchange for concessions elsewhere. The situation exposes Russia's limited capacity to project power beyond its immediate periphery, particularly as its military resources remain committed to Ukraine.

The operation's swift success—capturing Maduro in under an hour—stands in stark contrast to Russia's prolonged and costly engagement in Ukraine, undermining Moscow's military prestige.

Brazil: Sharp Condemnation and Regional Alarm

Brazil issued one of the strongest denunciations among BRICS members. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva declared the US had crossed an "unacceptable line," describing the operation as a "flagrant violation of international law" and the "worst moments of interference" in Latin American history.

Brazil has reinforced its northern border with military forces and temporarily closed crossings with Venezuela, preparing for potential refugee flows and regional instability. Lula's response reflects Brazil's historical commitment to regional sovereignty, non-intervention, and Latin America as a "Zone of Peace." The intervention places Brazil in an increasingly uncomfortable position as it seeks to maintain economic ties with the United States while asserting leadership in the Global South and BRICS.

India: Strategic Ambiguity During BRICS Presidency

India, which assumed the BRICS presidency on January 1, 2026, issued only a carefully worded statement expressing "deep concern" about developments in Venezuela while calling for dialogue and restraint. New Delhi's measured response stands in marked contrast to the vocal condemnations from China, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa.

India's Diplomatic Challenge: India's cautious positioning reflects its doctrine of strategic autonomy and its calculation that condemning the US action could jeopardize critical trade negotiations with the Trump administration, particularly as Washington has already imposed 50% tariffs on Indian goods over oil purchases from Russia. Russian media notably praised India's "careful balancing act," recognizing that New Delhi faces the difficult task of chairing BRICS while managing its complex relationship with Washington.

India's restrained response highlights the fundamental tensions within BRICS between countries with antagonistic relationships with the US (China, Russia, Iran) and those seeking to maintain strategic autonomy (India, Brazil).

South Africa: Principled Opposition and Global South Solidarity

South Africa issued strong condemnations rooted in its commitment to international law and the UN Charter. President Cyril Ramaphosa "utterly rejected" the US action, which he said "undermined the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a UN member state," and demanded the immediate release of Maduro and his wife.

At the UN Security Council emergency meeting on January 5, South Africa argued that the US strikes "wantonly violated" Venezuela's sovereignty and warned that "military invasions of sovereign states lead to instability and deeper crises," citing precedents in Libya, Iraq, and African nations where foreign intervention fueled insecurity. South Africa's response reflects its historical anti-imperialist stance and its role as a leading voice for Global South solidarity within BRICS.

BRICS+ Expansion Members: Revealing Divisions

Iran: Alarm and Existential Concerns

Iran issued one of the most forceful condemnations, describing the US operation as "a blatant violation of the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity" that breached fundamental UN Charter principles. Tehran's alarm extends beyond solidarity with a fellow sanctioned state; Iran views the Venezuela operation as a potential precursor to similar action against itself.

The timing is particularly concerning for Iranian leadership, which faces widespread domestic protests and economic crisis. Trump has issued explicit warnings that the US would respond if Iranian authorities killed protesters, with some administration officials drawing direct parallels between Venezuela and Iran. Iran had established military cooperation with Venezuela, including drone manufacturing facilities and defense equipment, all of which now face disruption.

Gulf States and New Members: Notable Silence

The most striking feature of the Gulf Arab BRICS+ members' response has been their silence. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt—all of which joined BRICS in 2024—have issued no official statements condemning or supporting the US operation. This silence reflects these nations' close security partnerships with Washington and their prioritization of bilateral US relations over BRICS solidarity.

Qatar, not a BRICS member, offered to mediate and expressed concern while maintaining neutrality. The Gulf states' reticence underscores the heterogeneity within the expanded BRICS+ grouping and raises questions about the bloc's ability to present a unified front on major geopolitical crises.

Economic and Financial Impact

China's Massive Investment Losses

The intervention threatens China's extensive economic interests in Venezuela. Beyond the $10-20 billion in outstanding oil-for-loans debt, Chinese companies have invested over $60 billion in Venezuela's energy sector, infrastructure, and telecommunications since 2007. Major projects include China Concord Petroleum's planned $1 billion investment and the Sinovensa joint venture with CNPC.

Supply Chain Disruption

The US naval blockade has already forced PDVSA to reduce oil production, including from Chinese joint ventures, directly impacting debt repayment flows to China. Chinese refineries in the country's eastern provinces, specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude at discounted prices, now face supply disruptions and must seek higher-cost alternatives. This marks a significant setback for China's Latin American economic strategy.

De-Dollarization Setback

Venezuela's forcible reintegration into the dollar-based energy system represents a substantial blow to BRICS' de-dollarization project. The Trump administration has explicitly stated that all Venezuelan oil will now flow through channels "consistent with US law," effectively ending Venezuela's experiment with yuan-denominated oil sales and alternative payment mechanisms.

Venezuela had become a living demonstration that countries could survive and function outside the dollar system despite US sanctions. The US intervention sends an unmistakable message to would-be challengers of dollar hegemony: departure from the dollar-based system may invite military consequences.

Implications for BRICS Financial Architecture: The timing is particularly damaging as BRICS had been advancing alternative financial infrastructure, including the mBridge multi-central bank digital currency platform and China's CIPS payment system with 4,800 participating banks in 185 countries. Venezuela's capture demonstrates the limits of these alternatives when confronted with US military power.

Strategic and Geopolitical Ramifications

Monroe Doctrine Reinvigoration

President Trump explicitly invoked the Monroe Doctrine—the 1823 policy asserting US hegemony over the Western Hemisphere—to justify the Venezuela operation, calling it the "Donroe Doctrine." The Trump administration's reassertion of sphere-of-influence politics carries profound implications for BRICS.

If the US claims unilateral intervention rights in the Americas, Russia and China may interpret this as tacit acceptance of their own sphere-of-influence claims in their respective regions. Some analysts worry about a tacit understanding between major powers not to interfere in each other's backyards—potentially giving Russia freer rein in Ukraine and China in Taiwan in exchange for acquiescing to US dominance in Latin America.

Credibility Crisis for BRICS Collective Security

The Venezuela crisis exposes the absence of any BRICS collective security mechanism or meaningful capability to protect members or partners from external military intervention. Despite years of rhetoric about multipolarity and challenging Western hegemony, BRICS proved unable to deter or respond to US military action against a close partner state.

Russia's inability to provide military assistance despite decades of strategic partnership with Venezuela, and China's pragmatic acceptance of fait accompli despite massive economic stakes, reveal the limitations of BRICS as a counterweight to US power projection. This credibility gap may cause other Global South nations to question the value of close BRICS alignment if the bloc cannot provide meaningful protection.

Impact on India's BRICS Presidency

India assumed the BRICS presidency on January 1, 2026—just two days before the Venezuela operation. The crisis immediately poses the challenge of maintaining bloc cohesion amid divergent member responses.

India has signaled it will emphasize Global South development, trade in local currencies (rather than confrontational de-dollarization), and inclusive development during its chairmanship while avoiding policies that would antagonize the Trump administration. This approach may disappoint China, Russia, and other members seeking a more assertive BRICS posture against perceived US unilateralism.

Implications for International Law and Global Governance

The Venezuela operation has precipitated a broader crisis of international legitimacy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the strike a "dangerous precedent," while the UN Security Council emergency meeting on January 5 descended into deadlock, with the US vetoing any resolution condemning its action. This paralysis reinforces perceptions, particularly widespread in the Global South, that international institutions cannot constrain major power actions.

BRICS nations, led by China and Russia, are leveraging the Venezuela crisis to argue for fundamental reform of the UN system and other multilateral institutions to provide "more equitable and inclusive representation" for developing countries. South Africa explicitly warned that the US action "reinforces the belief that might is right and undermines diplomacy." These arguments may resonate with fence-sitting nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, potentially expanding BRICS' political appeal even as its economic and security limitations become apparent.

Comparative BRICS Member Positions

Member	Official Position	Underlying Priority	Strategic Constraint
China	Vocal condemnation	Minimize investment losses	Broader US relations; limited power projection capacity
Russia	Muted condemnation	Ukraine peace negotiations	Military commitment elsewhere; spheres of influence ambiguity
Brazil	Strong denunciation	Regional sovereignty and leadership	Economic interdependence with US
India	Cautious concern	Maintain US trade relations	BRICS presidency; tariff pressures from Trump
South Africa	Principled opposition	Global South solidarity	Limited economic/military leverage
Iran	Forceful condemnation	Defend against precedent for own country	Domestic crisis; military limitations
Gulf States (SA, UAE, Egypt)	Silence	Maintain US security partnerships	Security dependence; oil interests alignment

Outlook and Long-Term Strategic Implications

The US military intervention in Venezuela represents a pivotal moment for BRICS, simultaneously exposing the bloc's limitations and potentially galvanizing its members around shared grievances. The operation has dealt a significant blow to BRICS' de-dollarization ambitions by forcibly reintegrating a major oil producer into dollar-denominated trade systems, threatened tens of billions in Chinese investments, and demonstrated the absence of credible BRICS collective security mechanisms.

Yet the intervention may also prove catalytic for BRICS cohesion in the medium term by providing a concrete demonstration of what members perceive as US willingness to use military force to maintain its economic and geopolitical dominance. Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa, and Iran share a common interest in preventing future such interventions and may redouble efforts to develop alternative financial infrastructure, regional security arrangements, and diplomatic coalitions capable of imposing political costs on unilateral military action.

Critical Uncertainties

India's Leadership: Whether New Delhi can navigate between US demands and BRICS expectations during its presidency
BRICS Financial Evolution: Whether alternative payment systems gain traction despite setback or retreat further
Sphere of Influence Dynamics: Whether US acceptance of China/Russia spheres emerges or creates new tensions
Global South Alignment: Whether Venezuela crisis attracts or repels other nations from BRICS engagement

Ultimately, the Venezuela intervention underscores that the transition from US unipolarity to a genuinely multipolar international system remains incomplete and contested. While BRICS represents an important coalition of major emerging economies with shared interests in reforming global governance, the bloc's capacity to challenge established power structures through coordinated action remains limited by members' divergent priorities, economic interdependencies with the West, and absence of military capabilities comparable to the United States.

References

Document Prepared: January 11, 2026
Analysis Period: January 2-11, 2026
Sources: 24 primary news and analysis sources from leading international publications

VenezuelaOil

Don Bradford