2025 Lodi Crush Report: The Final Numbers

2025 Lodi Crush Report: The Final Numbers

The USDA/CDFA Final 2025 California Grape Crush Report, released April 30, 2026, confirms District 11 crushed 532,409 tons — 14.1% below the August moderate forecast of 620,073 tons and 9.8% below the 2024 D11 total. Statewide, the Final crush settled at 2,761,914 tons, down 6.1% from 2024.

The Final report supersedes the Preliminary numbers analyzed in March. The most consequential revision: the table-grape-to-crush surge that appeared to be reaching District 11 in the Preliminary data turned out to be a District 13 phenomenon all along. D11 ended 2025 with just 2.4 tons of table grapes diverted to crush — essentially zero.

What remains unchanged: a Zinfandel collapse, a cooler-than-normal vintage that delivered exceptional fruit quality, and a widening price chasm between coastal and interior California. What changes: Lodi's exposure to the table-grape-diversion economy is far smaller than the Preliminary suggested.

This article updates the August 2025 Crush Forecast, the Lodi Winegrowing Trends 2020–2024 analysis, and the March 2026 Preliminary Crush Report piece, with Final Crush Report data and harvest-season reporting from the Wine Institute and Lodi winemakers.

What Changed Between Preliminary and Final

The Final Grape Crush Report incorporates late-reporting processors, corrections, and reclassifications that arrived after January 31, 2026. Headline statewide tonnage moved by less than 0.1%, but the district-level shifts that matter for Lodi were larger.

MetricPreliminaryFinalDelta
D11 total crush (tons)537,752532,409−5,343
D11 table grapes (tons)9,3532.4−9,351
D11 wine grapes (tons)528,372532,407+4,035
D11 average price ($/ton)$580.12$585.58+$5.46
Statewide total (tons)2,759,2022,761,914+2,712
Statewide YoY change−6.2%−6.1%
D4 (Napa) average $/ton$6,767.53$6,635.85−$131.68
Concentrate tonnage337,705345,538+7,833

D11 wine grape totals actually nudged upward in the Final, which is normal: late processor reports tend to add tonnage. The full reduction in D11's headline number came entirely from the table grape reclassification.

California Statewide: Another Down Year

The 2025 statewide Final crush of 2,761,914 tons is down 6.1% from 2024's already-depressed 2,942,673 tons — itself the lightest crop since 2004. The industry has now shed roughly 39% of volume from the 2018 peak of 4.5 million tons.

Type2025 Tons2024 TonsChangeAvg $/Ton 2025Price Change
White Wine1,324,4651,401,048−5.5%$706.10−1.1%
Red Wine1,301,6901,464,532−11.1%$1,280.66−4.4%
Raisin11,54123,630−51.2%$312.75+5.5%
Table124,21853,463+132.3%$201.00+33.4%
All Types2,761,9142,942,673−6.1%$977.76−3.9%

Red wine varieties took the harder hit, declining 11.1% versus 5.5% for whites. The statewide average price of all varieties fell 3.9% to $977.76/ton. Every premium coastal district saw price declines: Napa dropped 4.5% to $6,635.85/ton, Sonoma fell 5.6% to $2,762.88. For concentrate production, 345,538 tons — 12.5% of the total crush — were diverted, underscoring the ongoing bulk oversupply.

California Statewide Crush by Type, 2020–2025

Source: USDA NASS California / CDFA Final Grape Crush Reports, 2020–2025.

District 11 (Lodi): How the Forecast Played Out

In August 2025, Lodi411 projected three scenarios for Lodi's crush. With Final numbers in hand, here is what actually happened.

ScenarioProjected TonsActual 2025 TonsVariance
Conservative (−15%)501,964
Moderate (+5%)620,073532,409−14.1%
Strong Recovery725,566
Actual Result532,409−9.8% vs 2024

The actual crush of 532,409 tons landed between the conservative and moderate scenarios — closer to conservative. Instead of the modest recovery projected, Lodi shed another 58,137 tons from 2024.

District 11 Crush Trajectory, 2020–2025

D11 tonnage by year. The 2024–2025 period shows two consecutive declines totaling roughly 250,000 tons against the 2023 peak.

YearD11 Total TonsYear-over-Year Change
2020689,000
2021782,328+13.6%
2022747,391−4.5%
2023782,000+4.6%
2024590,546−24.5%
2025 (Final)532,409−9.8%

Lodi has lost 31.9% of its crush volume since the 2023 peak — roughly 250,000 tons vanishing in two years. The region's share of the statewide crush slipped to 19.3%, down from its historical 20.5% average.

Where the Forecast Went Wrong

Three factors drove the miss:

  1. Zinfandel collapsed far beyond projections — Final actual: 51,631 tons vs. the conservative estimate of 70,275 (a 26.5% miss even on the pessimistic end).
  2. Chardonnay underperformed — Final actual: 86,880 tons vs. conservative forecast of 90,354.
  3. Continued vineyard removals and unharvested acres exceeded expectations — growers like Jaclyn Stokes reported only 60% of fruit harvested; Todd Maley of Maley Vineyards left "almost half" of his crop unpicked, not due to quality but due to lack of buyers.

The 2025 Growing Season: A Cool Vintage Lodi Didn't Expect

The August forecast projected elevated Brix levels from anticipated warmth. The season delivered the opposite — and winemakers say it was a gift.

Brix: Projected vs. Actual

Statewide Brix fell across every category compared to 2024.

Type2025 Brix2024 BrixChange
All Varieties22.8°23.5°−0.7°
Red Wine24.0°24.8°−0.8°
White Wine22.0°22.2°−0.2°

Varietal-level projections missed significantly:

VarietalProjected BrixActual BrixDifferenceAssessment
Cabernet Sauvignon23.7°24.7°+1.0°Higher than projected
Chardonnay25.1°23.3°−1.8°Well below
Zinfandel26.1°22.1°−4.0°Far below
Merlot25.0°24.5°−0.5°Slightly below
Pinot Noir25.0°24.2°−0.8°Below
Sauvignon Blanc23.4°21.6°−1.8°Well below
Petite Sirah26.8°24.7°−2.1°Well below

The Zinfandel Brix miss of −4.0° is remarkable. At 22.1° average, much of the Zin crop came in below the ideal 24.0–28.0° range. Cabernet Sauvignon was the one varietal that exceeded projections.

The Weather Story: Cool, Mild, and Spike-Free

The Wine Institute classified Lodi's 2025 growing season as "cooler than normal" with average rainfall and — critically — no wildfire impacts. The season unfolded in distinct phases.

Warm spring, early start. Good bud break and flowering set the stage, with vines progressing normally. There was little disease pressure and normal development from bud break through flowering.

The cool July. Todd Maley of Maley Vineyards pinpointed the turning point: "The cool month of July (a lot of 85-degree days) resulted in higher acidity and balanced wines. This was especially so with Zinfandel." An 85-degree July day in Lodi is notably mild for a region that routinely sees triple digits. The typical Zin problems — redberry dilution and rot — were "non-existent" in 2025.

No heat spikes. Susan Tipton of Acquiesce Winery called it "a comparatively easy year without any significant heat spikes during harvest," noting that the cooler weather resulted in unusually long fermentations — "longer than I can remember in the past 15 years." Statewide, Paso Robles experienced fewer than eight days over 100°F; Lodi followed a similar pattern.

Timing disruptions. Ali Colarossi of Estate Crush noted: "At one point we had already pressed out Cabernet and were still taking in Chardonnay fruit" — the mild weather disrupted traditional ripening order.

Late-season rain. Mid-October rains added complexity. Ben Kolber of KG Vineyard Management said "things changed abruptly toward the end, cutting harvest short and leaving many tons still on the vine" — though market conditions, not weather, were the primary reason fruit was left unharvested.

Lower Brix = Better Quality

Lodi winemakers were nearly unanimous: the lower Brix produced superior wine.

"We saw lower Brix overall, which equates to lower alcohol in the wines. Good fresh acidity in white grapes. Higher acidity levels also in the red grapes — we love fresher tasting red wines."— Markus Niggli, Markus Wine Co.
"The combination of a warm spring and mild summer has made the 2025 vintage notable for white varietals. Grapes are well-balanced in acidity and ripeness with minimal acid adjustments."— Han Han, Kautz/Ironstone
"Exceptionally dark black color like Petite Sirah" on Cabernet Sauvignon harvested at 23.9° Brix, achieving 13.7% ABV — demonstrating phenolic ripeness at lower sugar levels.— Dwight Busalacchi, Mio Vigneto
"The mild weather helped retain acidity in early-season whites such as Pinot Grigio and Sauvignon Blanc. The slower ripening pace saw red grapes develop dark color, freshness and deep flavors — all at lower sugars. Zinfandel is showing excellent color and concentration."— Wine Institute, 2025 Harvest Report

Varietal Forecast vs. Actual: The Lodi Scorecard

VarietalConservativeModerateFinal D11 TonsVariance vs Moderate
Cabernet Sauvignon130,511161,219132,681−17.7%
Chardonnay90,354111,61386,880−22.2%
Zinfandel70,27586,81051,631−40.5%
Pinot Gris59,524N/A
Sauvignon Blanc39,418N/A
Pinot Noir35,865N/A
Merlot33,069N/A
Petite Sirah26,184N/A

Zinfandel remains the biggest story. The 40.5% miss against the moderate forecast — and 26.5% miss against even the worst-case scenario — reflects the accelerating removal of Zin acreage. Statewide, Zinfandel fell from 200,998 to 152,172 tons (−24.3%), a loss of 48,826 tons. Lodi, which produces a third of California's Zinfandel, is ground zero for this decline.

District 11 Top Varietals — 2025 Final Tons

Top eight wine varietals crushed in District 11, 2025 Final.

Varietals Growing and Shrinking: Statewide

Winners

Varietal2024 Tons2025 Tons (Final)Change
Table Grapes (Total)53,463124,218+132.3%
Sauvignon Blanc138,665162,535+17.2%
Rubired150,607176,555+17.2%
Barbera28,71730,271+5.4%
Pinot Gris190,595198,644+4.2%
Cotton Candy (table)1352,889+2,041%

Rubired's 17.2% surge is counterintuitive — the bulk blending grape gained nearly 26,000 tons even as total wine crush fell, reflecting strong demand for concentrate and color additives. Sauvignon Blanc (+17.2%) is the premium bright spot.

Losers

Varietal2024 Tons2025 Tons (Final)Change
Arinarnoa8619−99.0%
Marsanne1,234315−74.5%
Alicante Bouschet2,8961,013−65.0%
Raisin Grapes (Total)23,63011,541−51.2%
Tannat5,1762,863−44.7%
Teroldego12,5797,789−38.1%
Petit Verdot22,28814,500−34.9%
Malbec24,45416,282−33.4%
Syrah54,10339,843−26.4%
Zinfandel200,998152,172−24.3%
Petite Sirah67,63452,161−22.9%
Merlot130,405104,848−19.6%
French Colombard250,330206,441−17.5%
Pinot Noir218,022190,626−12.6%

The Teroldego reversal is notable for Lodi. The 2020–2024 trends piece flagged it as the "fastest-growing new red" with +700–800% growth. The 2025 Final shows a statewide pullback of 38.1%, suggesting the speculative planting surge may have overshot demand.

The Table Grape Tsunami — and Why It Wasn't Lodi's Story

The single most dramatic statewide number in 2025 was the surge in table grapes diverted to crush: up 132.3% from 53,463 to 124,218 tons. The March analysis of the Preliminary report attributed roughly 9,353 tons of that total to District 11 — a finding that, if true, would have signaled meaningful pressure on the bottom end of the Lodi wine grape market.

The Final report tells a different story. Of the 124,218 tons of table grapes statewide, 99.99% came from Districts 13 and 14. District 11's total: 2.4 tons of Flame Tokay. Whether the Preliminary genuinely misclassified district assignments or the reading of those district columns was off, the corrected picture is clear: the table-grape-to-crush phenomenon is concentrated in the southern Central Valley, and Lodi is essentially absent from it.

District2025 Table Tons (Final)Share of State
D14 — Kings/Kern115,13792.7%
D13 — Fresno/Madera9,0787.3%
D11 — Lodi2.4~0.0%
D10 — Sierra Foothills0.8~0.0%
State Total124,218100%

The economics that drove the surge — table-grape growers in the southern Central Valley facing oversupply and weak fresh-market returns, diverting fruit to crush at $201/ton — remain real. Cotton Candy grapes at the crush pad rather than in Costco clamshells is still a powerful symbol of the fresh grape market's distress. But it is a Kings/Kern story, and to a smaller extent a Fresno/Madera story, not a Lodi story.

Standout Table Grape Surges (Statewide)

Variety2024 Tons2025 TonsChange
Princess51,724+34,380%
Sugraone371,729+4,573%
Cotton Candy1352,889+2,040%
Autumn Royal6152,495+306%
Other Table27,01081,369+201%
Emerald Seedless1,1603,429+196%
Holiday01,219NEW

Price Per Ton: The Geography of Value

The 2025 Final reinforces California's extreme price stratification. A ton of grapes from Napa commands more than 22 times the price of fruit from the southern Central Valley.

Average Price Per Ton by District, 2025 Final

Weighted average grower returns per ton, delivered basis. D11 (Lodi) highlighted in amber.

DistrictRegion2025 $/Ton (Final)
D4Napa$6,635.85
D3Sonoma/Marin$2,762.88
D16Orange/Riverside/SD$2,107.91
D8SLO/Santa Barbara$1,751.14
D10Sierra Foothills$1,700.38
D1Mendocino$1,675.66
D7Monterey/San Benito$1,329.13
D2Lake$1,163.60
D9Sacramento North$758.02
D11Lodi$585.58
D12Stanislaus/Merced$481.54
D13Fresno/Madera$333.73
D14Kings/Kern$290.87

Lodi Varietal Pricing — Now Exact

The Final report publishes precise District 11 prices. The March piece had to estimate; here are the verified numbers.

VarietalLodi (D11) Final $/TonNapa (D4) $/TonState Average $/Ton
Cabernet Sauvignon$640.48$8,644.88$2,122.49
Chardonnay$565.96~$3,200$1,011.25
Zinfandel$597.43~$4,765$692.28
Petite Sirah$639.74~$4,581$1,007.79
Sauvignon Blanc$522.67~$667$1,066.36
Pinot Gris$564.86~$385$553.13

The D11 Cab average of $640.48 sits at roughly 30% of the statewide Cab average of $2,122.49. Some Napa Cab lots traded at $42,875/ton in 2025 — more than 66 times the average Lodi Cab price. Lodi Cab base prices ranged from as low as $50/ton (distress pricing) up to roughly $6,000 for small specialty lots.

The Petite Sirah number is worth flagging: at $639.74/ton, D11 Petite Sirah is now priced almost identically to D11 Zinfandel and well below the statewide average of $1,007.79. The Preliminary-era estimate of $800–1,000/ton was too generous.

Seven Notable Numbers in the Final Report

1. Durif at $9,100/ton

Only 0.1 ton purchased, but the highest per-ton price for any single transaction in the entire report.

2. Arinarnoa: 861 → 9 tons (−99%)

This French experimental cross essentially vanished from California in a single year.

3. Cotton Candy grapes up 2,040%

The novelty table variety's diversion to crush is a canary in the coal mine for fresh grape markets — though concentrated in D14, not Lodi.

4. Zinfandel lost 48,826 tons

The single largest tonnage drop of any varietal — consequential for Lodi's identity, since the region produces about a third of the state's Zinfandel.

5. Rubired surged 17.2% while everything else fell

Bulk blending grapes are eating premium wine's lunch.

6. Napa Cab at $42,875/ton vs. Lodi Cab at ~$50/ton (low end)

An 857:1 price ratio within the same state for the same grape variety.

7. Holiday grapes: 0 → 1,219 tons

A brand-new table variety appeared with over a thousand tons, showing how quickly fresh-market diversion is accelerating in the southern Central Valley.

What This Means for Lodi Wineries

The crush report doesn't name individual operations, but the data reveals structural implications for Lodi's wine community.

Large Commercial Operations

Constellation/Woodbridge, Delicato/DPSG, Trinchero: These operations dominate District 11 purchasing. Cabernet Sauvignon (132,681 tons) and Chardonnay (86,880 tons) remain the foundation of their value-tier production. At $640/ton for Cab and $566/ton for Chardonnay, raw material costs are favorable, but declining volumes suggest contracted acreage is shrinking as growers pull uneconomic blocks.

Zinfandel Specialists

Michael David Winery, Jessie's Grove, Klinker Brick, McCay Cellars, m2 Wines, Harney Lane: The 24.3% statewide Zin decline and accelerating old-vine removal is now reflected in hard crush numbers. Zin prices held essentially flat at $692.28/ton despite a 49,000-ton supply drop, suggesting the market is finding equilibrium at much lower volume. Heritage old-vine Zinfandel is becoming scarcer by the year. The silver lining: the cool July eliminated redberry and rot issues, and winemakers report the 2025 Zin is showing excellent color and concentration.

Petite Sirah Producers

Lodi crushed 26,184 tons of Petite Sirah — over half the state total of 52,161. This is a position of strength in volume, but the D11 average price of $639.74/ton is well below the statewide average of $1,007.79 and a significant compression from 2024 levels. Lodi Petite Sirah is increasingly priced like a value-tier red, not a varietal premium.

Sauvignon Blanc as Bright Spot

District 11 crushed 39,418 tons of Sauvignon Blanc from a varietal that grew 17.2% statewide. Han Han of Kautz/Ironstone confirmed the quality case: white varietals in 2025 are "well-balanced in acidity and ripeness with minimal acid adjustments." Lodi's 2025 Sauvignon Blanc represents both a volume win and a quality win.

The 2025 Paradox: Great Wine, Difficult Market

The cruelest feature of the 2025 vintage is the disconnect between quality and economics. Every Lodi winemaker interviewed describes exceptional fruit quality — lower alcohol, brighter acidity, darker color, cleaner fermentations. Dwight Busalacchi of Mio Vigneto is already experimenting with the lower-alcohol profile as a deliberate strategy for reaching younger consumers who prefer European-style elegance over California power.

But the market couldn't absorb it. National wine consumption continues its multi-year decline. Growers left tens of thousands of tons on the vine — not because of weather or disease, but because there were no buyers. As Todd Maley put it, the 2025 vintage produced "wonderful wines" — from grapes that, in many cases, nobody wanted to buy.

Updated Outlook: 2026 and Beyond

Metric2025 Final2026 ProjectionBasis
D11 Total Crush532,409 tons495,000–540,000Continued removals partially offset by stable demand from value-tier producers
Zinfandel D1151,631 tons40,000–48,000Removal acceleration continues
Cab Sauvignon D11132,681 tons125,000–135,000Relatively stable
Avg Price D11$585.58$565–605Flat to slightly declining
Table Grapes D112.4 tons< 100 tonsLodi is not a meaningful destination for fresh-market table grapes

The key variables for 2026:

  • Vineyard removals: California reportedly pulled 40,000+ acres of vines in 2025, with Lodi growers participating disproportionately. The 2025 Crop Grape Acreage Report (released alongside the Final Crush Report) is the next dataset to watch for confirmation.
  • Wine demand: National consumption continues its multi-year decline; younger consumers are trending toward spirits, RTDs, and non-alcoholic options.
  • Water and input costs: Ongoing cost pressures make marginal blocks uneconomic at current grape prices.
  • The Rubired/concentrate economy: Growth of bulk blending grapes (+17.2%) suggests a structural shift toward lower-cost, higher-volume production — a challenge for Lodi's premium ambitions but an opportunity for scale producers.
  • The quality argument: If the 2025 wines live up to winemaker expectations, Lodi has a compelling story — world-class fruit at accessible prices, in a lower-alcohol style that matches modern consumer preferences.

The data is clear: Lodi is in a period of painful but perhaps necessary right-sizing. The region's remarkable varietal diversity (136+ cultivars), its Sauvignon Blanc and Petite Sirah strength, and its irreplaceable role as the source of roughly 19% of California's wine grapes ensure its relevance. But the Lodi of 2026 is a fundamentally different place than the Lodi of 2021, and the Final Crush Report makes that transformation undeniable.

LodiEye is the investigative research arm of Lodi411.com, a citizen-run civic data and transparency platform serving Lodi, California and San Joaquin County. LodiEye is not a traditional news outlet. It does not employ professional journalists or reporters, and the people behind it do not hold journalism degrees or have professional newsroom experience. LodiEye is best understood as civic research and analysis — not peer journalism — and is not a substitute for the local and regional news organizations that do this work professionally. For traditional reporting on Lodi, San Joaquin County, and the broader region, readers are encouraged to consult the Lodi News-Sentinel, Stocktonia, The Sacramento Bee, CalMatters, and other established news outlets staffed by credentialed journalists.

This LodiEye crush report analysis was produced using artificial intelligence tools under the direction and review of the founder. Lodi411 uses multiple AI platforms in its research and publication workflow, including Anthropic's Claude (primarily Opus and Sonnet models) and Perplexity AI across a variety of large language models offered by each. These tools were used in the following capacities:

Source Discovery: AI-assisted search and retrieval identified the USDA NASS / CDFA Final 2025 California Grape Crush Report (released April 30, 2026), the Wine Institute 2025 Harvest Report, Stocktonia coverage of Lodi winemaker interviews, Terrain (Farm Credit) wine industry analysis, and American Vineyard Magazine industry coverage. Perplexity AI was used to confirm the Final report's release date and surface secondary industry coverage; Claude was used for direct extraction and analysis of the 136-page Final PDF.

Credibility Validation: AI cross-referenced statewide tonnage, District 11 totals, weighted-average prices, and Brix readings between the Final report PDF and three independent industry sources (Terrain, American Vineyard Magazine, California Ag Network). Multiple AI models were used to independently verify each data point against the source PDF and flag discrepancies between Preliminary and Final figures.

Analysis and Synthesis: Claude Opus and Sonnet assisted in reconciling the Final numbers against the August 2025 forecast scenarios, the March 2026 Preliminary article, and the 2020–2024 Lodi winegrowing trends piece. The analysis identified a column-attribution issue in the Preliminary-era table-grape District 11 figures and traced the corrected reclassification to Districts 13 and 14 in the Final.

Presentation: Claude assisted in drafting tables, narrative, KendoUI chart configurations, and the v4 HTML structure used for publication. Chart placement was selected to follow the data-discussion paragraph and precede the analysis paragraph for each visualization.

Final Review: Multiple AI models reviewed the completed draft for factual consistency against the source PDF, source attribution accuracy, logical coherence, and balanced presentation. Multi-tool cross-checking is the actual error-reduction mechanism used; errors can come from AI hallucination, source-data problems, or oversight, and are flagged for correction whenever a reader identifies one.

Lodi411/LodiEye believes transparency about AI use serves both readers and the broader information ecosystem. Readers who spot errors are encouraged to write editor@lodi411.com so corrections can be made.

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